Protect and revive：日本重建困難重重

2011年08月15日 06:08 AM
FT大參考：日本重建困難重重
Protect and revive
英國《金融時報》 王明 報導



Laying out a vision for reconstruction of Japan's tsunami-devastated north-east coast, a government-appointed council of experts made clear the goal should be much more than merely rebuilding the region's shattered towns. “It is our most profound wish,” wrote the panel of worthies from academia, regional government and the private sector in June, “that the reconstruction efforts following the disaster will reverberate around Japan, leading to the revival of the entire country.”


日本東北沿海地區今年遭到海嘯重創，在為該地區規劃重建藍圖時，由政府任命的專家委員會闡明，目標不應當只是重建損毀的城鎮。這個由學術界、地方政府和私營部門精英組成的委員會在今年6月寫道：“我們最深切的願望在於，災後重建工作將在全日本引發迴響，帶動國家的複興。”

Such hopes are easy to understand. The destruction wreaked on communities along hundreds of kilometres of the Pacific seaboard has created that rarest of things in a developed nation: an apparently blank slate, crying out for a new approach.


這種願望很容易理解。太平洋沿岸上，被摧毀的社區綿延數百公里，形成一個發達國家極其罕見的景象：一塊看似空蕩蕩的地盤，呼喚著一種新的建設方式。

Few in Japan would argue against the notion that revival is needed. Anaemic economic growth, dysfunctional politics and increasingly unsustainable state debt have contributed to a sense of national malaise, compounded by the failure of safety systems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant crippled by the tsunami on March 11. In a May interview with the Financial Times, Naoto Kan, prime minister, said the nation had found itself at something of an impasse. “As we overcome the crisis created by this disaster, we must also overcome the preceding crisis, what could be called Japan's structural crisis,” he said.


在日本，極少有人會否認復興的必要性。經濟增長乏力、政治體系失靈、政府負債水平越來越難以持續，這一切都讓人感覺到國家萎靡不振。今年3月11日，海嘯損毀福島第一核電站(Fukushima Daiichi)的安全系統，更加劇了這種感覺。日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)5月在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時指出，日本發現自己身陷僵局。他說：“我們在克服天災帶來的危機時，也必須克服在此之前出現的危機，那可以說是日本的結構性危機。”

The question now is whether the world's third-largest economy can use the disaster as a catalyst for effective action to address the difficulties that have dogged it since the huge asset bubble of the 1980s burst.


現在的問題是，這個世界第三大經濟體能否將天災當作催化劑，採取有效措施，應對從20世紀80年代巨大的資產泡沫破裂以來，就一直困擾著它的各種困難。

Tohoku, the region of which the devastated coast is part, would certainly be a good place to start. It is widely seen as a prime example of some of Japan's most deep-rooted problems, including a rapidly ageing and declining population, insecure public finances , and farming and fisheries industries stuck in apparently terminal decline. If reconstruction of coastal communities offers answers to such problems, the region could really become a model for the nation.


被摧毀的沿海地帶屬於東北地區(Tohoku)，該地區肯定是一個很好的起點。人們普遍認為，東北地區體現著日本某些最根深蒂固的問題，包括快速老齡化、人口下降、公共財政沒有保障、農漁業顯然難以擺脫衰落趨勢。如果沿海城鎮的重建能夠為這樣的問題給出答案，東北地區的確可以成為日本的榜樣。

Such a result can hardly be assumed, however. While by international standards, Japan's short-term response to the disaster was often impressive, the ongoing nuclear crisis at Fukushima Daiichi in particular has exposed plenty of government failings. Confidence in official promises to protect the population from radiation exposure has been battered by revelations of inadequate monitoring and confused decision-making over evacuation areas.


然而取得這樣的結果絕非輕而易舉。雖然按照國際標準，日本對災害的短期應對往往令人印象深刻，但是福島第一核電站仍未解決的核危機暴露出了政府的大量失職之處。官方承諾保護民眾免受輻射侵害，但在輻射監測不足、有關撤離區域的決策混亂等問題暴露後，民眾對這種承諾的信任受到了損害。

For the tens of thousands of residents from towns around the plant who are stuck in far-flung temporary accommodation, reconstruction remains a distant dream. And last month, beef from hundreds of cattle contaminated with levels of radioactive caesium far above the official limit was found to have been distributed to shops across the country.


核電站周圍城鎮的數万名居民至今仍暫住在偏遠的臨時居所中，對他們來說，重建仍然是一個遙不可及的夢。上月，數百頭受到嚴重超標的銫輻射污染的牛身上的牛肉，被發現已經配送至全國各地的商店。

Mr Kan and his cabinet have also been struggling to come up with a coherent energy policy amid divisions over the future of nuclear power in Japan, and whether or not to restart reactors stopped for safety checks or maintenance after the disaster. The population has responded admirably to calls for cuts of up to 15 per cent in peak-time electricity use in Greater Tokyo and other areas, which have forced companies to shift working hours and left workers sweltering in their offices. But uncertainty about future energy supply is fuelling fears of an acceleration of the exodus of manufacturing to China and elsewhere.


在另一方面，對於核電在日本的未來，對於在災後為了安全檢查或維修而暫停運行的反應堆是否應該重新啟動，日本國內意見不一。在這種背景下，菅直人和他的內閣難以拿出一套連貫的能源政策。在東京都市圈和其他地區，民眾對高峰時間節電15%的號召做出了令人敬佩的響應，這一號召迫使企業調整工作時間，並讓員工在辦公室裡忍受悶熱天氣。但是，有關未來能源供應的不確定性，正令人更加擔憂製造業將加速搬到中國和其他國家。

Optimists cite Japan's recovery from the second world war, which left many cities as smoking ruins, as an example of how such difficulties can be overcome. But Tadao Ando,​​ one of the nation's leading architects, speaks for many when he wonders aloud whether his compatriots are the equal of the postwar generation. “It seems to me that now we are lacking those kinds of children, and the adults aren't working so hard,” he says. “To live is to fight, but we have created a nation that dislikes and avoids fighting.”


樂觀者以日本在第二次世界大戰後恢復元氣為例，說明能夠克服這些困難。二戰後，日本許多城市變成了冒煙的廢墟。但是，日本著名建築師安藤忠雄(Tadao Ando)公開質疑，現在的日本人能否與戰後一代相提並論，他的話說出了許多人的心聲。 “在我看來，我們現在似乎缺少那種孩子，成年人也沒有那麼勤奮，”他說。 “生活就是拼搏，但我們已經造就了一個厭惡拼搏、迴避拼搏的民族。”

Mr Ando,​​ a vice-chairman on the reconstruction design council that drew up the government's basic vision for revival, also laments slow decision-making among ministries and agencies. “Now the world is watching how Japan rebuilds. If reconstruction fails, then the world will lose confidence in Japan,” he warns. “And investment will not come to a nation that does not command confidence.”


作為東日本大震災復興構想會議(Reconstruction Design Council)的副主席，安藤忠雄也對各部和各政府機構之間的緩慢決策表示惋惜。復興構想會議負責勾勒政府的基本複興願景。 “現在世人在關注著日本的重建。如果重建失敗，全世界都會對日本失去信心，”他警告說。 “而如果一個國家無法贏得別人的信心，就不會有人來投資。”

Yet making a rea​​l success of reconstruction following a disaster whose scale would tax any peacetime government will be a huge challenge. The earthquake and tsunami left more than 20,000 people dead or missing and destroyed or seriously damaged more than 200,000 homes. Some 23,000 hectares of farmland were flooded with salt water. More than 21,000 fishing boats were lost. And the shift in the earth's plates that caused the magnitude 9.0 tremor reduced the height of land along the north-east coast, in some places by more than a metre, making harbours and towns even more vulnerable to future tsunamis and typhoons.


然而在如此嚴重的災難（其規模會使和平時期的任何一個政府都難以招架）過後，要想實現真正成功的重建，將是一個巨大挑戰。 3月的地震和海嘯造成超過2萬人死亡或失踪，破壞或嚴重損毀超過20萬套住宅。約有2.3萬公頃農田遭到海水浸泡，超過2.1萬艘漁船全損。這還不算，造成9.0級強震的地球板塊運動，降低了東北沿海地區的地面高度，在某些地方降幅超過1米，這會讓港口和城鎮在未來的海嘯和颱風中更容易受損。

The resulting costs impose an extra burden on an already heavily stretched government –​​ gross state debt is more than 200 per cent of gross domestic product. Disposing of more than 20m tonnes of tsunami debris alone is expected to cost Y680bn ($8.6bn). Authorities plan to spend at least Y19,000bn on reconstruction in the next five years, to be financed mainly through special bonds and tax increases.


隨之而來的成本，給本來就已捉襟見肘的日本政府增加了額外的負擔——目前日本政府債務總額已經超過國內生產總值(GDP)的兩倍。僅僅是處置超過2千萬噸的海嘯廢墟這一項，預計就要花費6800億日元（86億美元）。官方計劃在未來五年至少投入19萬億日元用於重建，主要的資金來源將是特別債​​券和增稅。

Such spending should ensure the north-east coast's infrastructure is largely restored. But the real questions are whether the safety of the area's residents can be assured and whether communities already suffering long-term economic and demographic decline can be made economically sustainable.


這樣的支出應當能夠確保東北沿海地區的基礎設施基本得到恢復。但真正的問題是，這些地區居民的安全有沒有保障，對於已經在經濟和人口結構上陷入長期衰落的社區，能否使其在經濟上做到可持續。

One core approach, laid out by the reconstruction design council, and a potential model for the rest of the seismically risky archipelago, is to put aside hopes of ensuring complete protection in favour of “disaster reduction”. Breakwaters, sea walls and dykes are to be rebuilt, ideally stronger than before, so that they can deal with smaller tsunamis and typhoons. But there is no intention of creating the huge barriers that would be needed to cope with a wave on the scale of that of March 11. Instead, settlements will be moved to higher ground or land will be raised. Greater emphasis will be placed on ensuring that residents are always able – and ready – to escape if necessary.


復興構想會議設想的核心方式之一（這種方式潛在可能成為地震高發的日本列島其它地區的榜樣）是：不再寄希望於完全防護，而是立足於“減災”。防波堤、防浪牆、圍堰都要重建，最好還要比之前更加堅固，以抵擋較小的海嘯和颱風。但不打算建造足以抵禦3月11日那種大浪的巨型堤壩，而打算將居民點和其它設施移到地勢更高的地方，或乾脆墊高地基。更加註重的一點是：確保居民在必要時能夠——而且準備好——及時逃生。

In the city of Ofunato in Iwate prefecture, which was hard hit on March 11, officials have already drawn up provisional reconstruction plans. Kimiaki Toda, mayor of Ofunato, flicks through pages of maps of the city centre and nearby harbour villages to show how homes can be built on new compact residential areas on nearby hills, and how highway and railway embankments will be used as inland barriers to shield residents.


在3月11日受災嚴重的岩手縣大船渡市(Ofunato, Iwate prefecture)，官員們已經制訂了暫行重建計劃。市長戶田公明(Kimiaki Toda)翻著大船渡市內和附近漁村的地圖，說明如何在附近山上建造新型集中住宅區，以及如何利用公路和鐵路的路堤作為內陸防護堤，以保護市民。

Yet moving tens of thousands from vulnerable lower ground raises problems of financing and land-use law. Mr Toda also recognises that reaching agreement within each community on how to rebuild will be tricky – and that some residents are likely to want to stay near the sea despite the risk.


然而，讓數万人從容易受災的低窪地帶搬遷出來，涉及到資金和土地使用法的問題。戶田公明還發現，與每一個社區就如何重建達成一致並非易事，而且儘管有風險，有些居民可能寧願住在海邊。

There is deep uncertainty about how to stem an often precipitous decline in the populations of many coastal communities, where few young people stay after secondary school, and ageing fishermen and farmers must struggle ever harder to find successors.


關於如何遏止許多海濱城鎮人口急劇下降的趨勢，各方全無頭緒。在那些地方，大多數年輕人中學畢業以後就離開了，日漸蒼老的漁夫和農夫們找到接班人的難度越來越大。

The disaster creates a chance to address the underlying problems of the farming and fishing sectors. There are calls for the creation of new zones where private companies could be granted fishing rights previously controlled by fishing co-operatives. Yet such proposals face strong opposition, a reminder that the apparent tabula rasa created by the tsunami does not mean that existing interests and habits have been erased.


災​​難為解決農業和漁業部門的根本問題提供了一個契機。有人提議開闢新的捕魚區，授予私人公司在此類區域的捕魚權（之前捕魚權一直由各漁業合作社控制）。但這些提議遭到一些人的強烈反對，這提醒人們：海嘯過後儘管看上去一片空蕩盪，但原有的利益和習慣並未消失。

More broadly, the government plans to establish special zones in the affected prefectures, where enterprise and job creation will be encouraged by tax policies and streamlined administration – another possible model for a nation where businesspeople complain that they are hobbled by red tape.


在更廣的層面上，政府計劃在受災地區建立特區，通過稅收優惠和簡化行政手續幫助企業發展，促進就業。對於這個商界人士常常抱怨受困於行政手續繁瑣的國家，這也有望成為一個榜樣。

But it is unclear whether policy reforms alone can stem the population decline on a coast lined with countless fishing villages. Mr Toda, for example, argues that more fundamental change is needed. Conservative communities need to become more welcoming environments for young people, where innovation is welcome. “This is not only an issue for Ofunato city. It's an issue for all of Japan,” he says.


但尚不清楚的是，在這個遍布漁村的沿海地區，單憑政策改革能否遏止人口下降趨勢。例如戶田公明就認為，還需要更加根本的改變。保守的社區需要營造歡迎創新、歡迎年輕人的環境。戶田公明表示：“這不只是大船渡市的問題。這是全日本的問題。”

The most rational policy response might simply be to consolidate some communities into safer planned new towns rather than trying to rebuild them. Yet this approach has little appeal in a region of strong local loyalties.


最理性的政策回應也許是：乾脆將一些社區合併起來，建成更安全的經過良好規劃的城鎮，而非試圖重建這些社區。然而，在這樣一個故土觀念極重的地區，這種方案沒有什麼號召力。

The town of Minami Sanriku in M​​iyagi prefecture was almost obliterated by the tsunami, which left 987 of its 17,666 residents dead or missing. About 70 per cent of homes and 85 per cent of its shops and businesses were swept away. Mayor Jin Sato survived only by clinging to a railing on the roof of the town hall as the torrent carried off dozens of colleagues.


宮城縣南三陸町(Minami Sanriku, Miyagi prefecture)在海嘯中幾乎全毀，17666名居民中有987人遇難或失踪。海嘯沖毀了約70%的住宅，約85%的店鋪和商用設施。海嘯的急流沖走了市政廳內幾十名公務員，町長佐藤仁(Jin Sato)靠抓緊屋頂上的一道護欄，才死裡逃生。

Homeless survivors are now scattered in prefabricated houses around the area or in temporary accommodation further afield. It is impossible to know how many will come back, but Mr Sato is determined the town will survive. The greatest need, he says, is for action from central authorities to prevent residents from losing hope.


如今，無家可歸的倖存者們分散居住於附近地區的活動板房內，或更遠地區的臨時住所內。人們無法知曉有多少倖存者會回到家鄉，但佐藤仁決心重建家園。他表示，最緊要的是：中央政府要採取行動，防止居民們失去希望。

The government has come up with a broad plan based on its reconstruction council's vision. But after an interlude of unity, feuding between a weakened Kan administration and opposition groups and party rivals determined to topple the prime minister has returned. “Despite the situation in the disaster area, politics are continuing as usual,” Mr Sato says. “We have had m​​ore than 100 members of the Diet visit and, while they are here, they all say how terrible it is and how they are going to do something. But when they get home, they seem to forget all about it.”


政府在復興構想會議的設想基礎上，拿出了一個粗略的計劃。然而，在短暫​​的團結之後，力量受到削弱的菅直人政府與決心要他下台的反對黨及黨內反對者之間爭鬥又起。 “儘管災區形勢嚴峻，但政治操作一如既往。”佐藤仁表示，“已經有100多名國會議員來參觀過，他們來的時候，都說這兒的情形太糟了，會採取行動。但一回到家，他們就好像把這些話都忘掉了。”

The effect of political scrapping should not be overplayed: the government and opposition have put aside their differences to pass vital reconstruction financing bills. The disaster has also underscored the resilience of corporate Japan, with companies in the disaster-hit areas bouncing back much more quickly than expected.


不應誇大政治爭吵的影響：政府和反對派已經擱置分歧，通過了關鍵的重建撥款法案。災​​難也凸顯了日本企業的複原能力，災區許多企業的恢復速度大大快於人們的預期。

Tohoku is now cited as the likely focus of a national drive to develop renewable energy. With public opinion turning against new atomic power plants, the redirection of investment, research and innovation towards wind, solar and biomass could become a source of national growth.


如今，東北地區被列為國家大力發展可再生能源時可能指定的重點區域。隨著公眾對建造新的核電廠的反對聲漸長，投資、研究和創新正在轉向風能、太陽能和生物質能源，這可能成為日本的一個增長點。

Indeed, for all its problems, few doubt Japan still commands formidable social, economic and financial reserves. Not least, the fortitude and determination shown by the people of Tohoku have offered an inspirational model for a discouraged nation.


的確，儘管有諸多問題，但很少有人懷疑，日本仍然擁有強大的社會、經濟和金融底氣。另外，東北地區人民展現出來的堅韌和決心，為深受打擊的日本民族提供了表率。

Along the north-east coast, residents are labouring hard to bring some semblance of normality to their shattered communities. The village of Okirai in Iwate prefecture, for example, is still littered with debris from the tsunami. But Sumiko Nakai, 85, can be found pulling weeds from a silted-up traffic island. “I thought it should be cleaned up a bit,” she says. “Rather than asking somebody else, it's better to do things yourself.”


在日本東北沿海地區，居民們正在努力讓受到重創的家園重現一絲正常。就拿岩手縣越喜來村(Okirai, Iwate prefecture)來說，儘管海嘯留下的垃圾仍隨處可見，但85歲的中井澄子（Sumiko Nakai，音譯）已經在積滿淤泥的安全島上拔除野草了。 “我覺得這兒應該清理清理，”中井澄子說，“叫別人做，還不如自己動手。”



譯者/何黎