A generation ago, Japan was widely admired — and
feared — as an economic paragon. Business best sellers put samurai
warriors on their covers, promising to teach you the secrets of Japanese
management; thrillers by the likes of Michael Crichton portrayed
Japanese corporations as unstoppable juggernauts rapidly consolidating
their domination of world markets.
Then Japan fell into a
seemingly endless slump, and most of the world lost interest. The main
exceptions were a relative handful of economists, a group that happened to include Ben Bernanke, now the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and yours truly.
These Japan-obsessed economists viewed the island nation’s economic
troubles, not as a demonstration of Japanese incompetence, but as an
omen for all of us. If one big, wealthy, politically stable country
could stumble so badly, they wondered, couldn’t much the same thing
happen to other such countries?
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Fred R. Conrad/The New York TimesPaul Krugman
Sure enough, it both could
and did. These days we are, in economic terms, all Japanese — which is
why the ongoing economic experiment in the country that started it all
is so important, not just for Japan, but for the world.
In a sense, the really
remarkable thing about “Abenomics” — the sharp turn toward monetary and
fiscal stimulus adopted by the government of Prime Minster Shinzo Abe —
is that nobody else in the advanced world is trying anything similar. In
fact, the Western world seems overtaken by economic defeatism.
In America, for example, there are still more than four times as many long-term unemployed workers
as there were before the economic crisis, but Republicans only seem to
want to talk about fake scandals. And, to be fair, it has also been a
long time since President Obama said anything forceful publicly about
job creation.
Still, at least we’re growing. Europe’s economy is back in recession,
and it has actually grown a bit less over the past six years than it
did between 1929 and 1935; meanwhile, it keeps hitting new highs for
unemployment. Yet there is no hint of a major change in policy. At best,
we may be looking at a slight relaxation of the savage austerity
programs Brussels and Berlin are imposing on debtor nations.
It would be easy for
Japanese officials to make the same excuses for inaction that we hear
all around the North Atlantic: they are hamstrung by a rapidly aging
population; the economy is weighed down by structural problems (and
Japan’s structural problems, especially its discrimination against
women, are legendary); debt is too high (far higher, as a share of the
economy, than that of Greece). And in the past, Japanese officials have,
indeed, been very fond of making such excuses.
The truth, however — a
truth that the Abe government apparently gets — is that all of these
problems are made worse by economic stagnation. A short-term boost to
growth won’t cure all of Japan’s ills, but, if it can be achieved, it
can be the first step toward a much brighter future.
So, how is Abenomics working? The safe answer is that it’s too soon to tell. But the early signs are good — and, no, Thursday’s sudden drop in Japanese stocks doesn’t change that story.
The good news starts with surprisingly rapid Japanese economic growth in the first quarter
of this year — actually, substantially faster growth than that in the
United States, while Europe’s economy continued to shrink. You never
want to make too much of one quarter’s numbers, but that’s the kind of
thing we want to see.
Meanwhile, Japanese stocks
have soared, while the yen has fallen. And, in case you’re wondering, a
weak yen is very good news for Japan because it makes the country’s
export industries more competitive.
Some observers have raised the alarm over rising Japanese long-term interest rates,
even though these rates are still less than 1 percent. But the
combination of rising interest rates and rising stock prices suggests
that both reflect an increase in optimism, not worries about Japanese
solvency.
To be sure, Thursday’s sell-off
in Japanese stocks put a small dent in that optimistic assessment. But
stocks are still way up from last year, and I’m old enough to remember Black Monday in 1987,
when U.S. stocks suddenly fell more than 20 percent for no obvious
reason, and the ongoing economic recovery suffered not at all.
So the overall verdict on
Japan’s effort to turn its economy around is so far, so good. And let’s
hope that this verdict both stands and strengthens over time. For if
Abenomics works, it will serve a dual purpose, giving Japan itself a
much-needed boost and the rest of us an even more-needed antidote to
policy lethargy.
As I said at the beginning,
at this point the Western world has seemingly succumbed to a severe
case of economic defeatism; we’re not even trying to solve our problems.
That needs to change — and maybe, just maybe, Japan can be the
instrument of that change.
David Brooks is off today.Op-Ed Columnist
Japan the Model
May 27, 2013
專欄作者
日本再次成為西方學習的榜樣
保羅·克魯格曼 2013年05月27日
一代人之前，日本是廣受敬畏的經濟典範。商業暢銷書的封面上印着日本武士的圖案，承諾向讀者傳授日本的管理秘訣；在邁克爾·克萊頓(Michael Crichton)等人的驚悚小說中，日本企業勢不可擋、所向披靡，迅速鞏固它在世界市場上的統治地位。
然後，日本墜入了看似無止境的衰退之中，多數人對它失去了
興趣。仍對日本感興趣的，主要是人數相對較少的一些經濟學家。這群人恰好包括本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)，現任的美聯儲(Federal
Reserve)主席，還有我自己。這些痴迷於日本的經濟學家認為，島國日本的經濟困境不僅顯示了日本人的無能，還警示着我們所有人。他們想的是：如果一
個強國既富裕又政治穩定，都能栽得如此之慘，難道同樣的事情不會發生在其他類似的國家？
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Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times保羅·克魯格曼
那是肯定的，不僅可能，而且已經發生了。這段日子裡，從經濟角度講，我們都是日本人。這也是為何在日本，這個首個遭此厄運的國家，正在進行的經濟實驗如此重要，對日本和世界來說都是如此。
日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的政府突然轉向貨幣及財政刺激措施，這被稱為「安倍經濟學」(Abenomics)。從某個角度看，此舉的真正不凡之處在於，其他發達國家沒一個正在做相似的嘗試。其實，西方世界似乎已被經濟失敗主義擊垮。
例如，在美國，現在長期失業者的人數依然是經濟危機之前的4倍多，但是共和黨似乎只想談論那些子虛烏有的醜聞。好吧，公平地說，奧巴馬總統(Obama)也很久沒有就創造就業機會公開發表什麼有力的言論了。
當然，我們至少還在增長。而歐洲經濟卻又重新陷入衰退。而
且，過去六年歐洲經濟的增長其實略低於1929年到1935年的水平；同時，歐洲失業率屢創新高。但是，並沒有會發生重大政策變化的跡象。最好的情況也只
是我們可能會看到，布魯塞爾和柏林強加給債務國的沉重的緊縮計劃能夠略微鬆一口氣。
日本官員能很容易找許多借口為毫不作為辯護，就是現在我們
聽北大西洋沿岸各國說的那些借口：人口迅速老齡化帶來破壞；經濟被結構性問題拖垮（而且日本的結構性問題臭名昭著，尤其是該國對女性的歧視）；債台高築
（日本債務占日本經濟總量的份額遠遠高於希臘）。而且，日本官員曾經的確很喜歡找這種借口。
然而，事實是，這些問題都會因經濟停滯變得更糟糕。而安倍政府顯然認清了這一事實。短期的經濟增長，並不能解決日本的所有問題。但是，如果能夠出現短期經濟增長，這會是走向更加光明未來的第一步。
那麼，安倍經濟學的效果如何呢？萬無一失的答案是：現在說還為時過早。但是，早期的跡象是好的。而且，不，周四日本股市突然下跌並不會影響全局。
今年第一季度，日本經濟增長速度之快，令人吃驚，這是一連串好消息的第一個。該增長速度遠遠高於美國，而當時歐洲經濟還在繼續衰退。你永遠不應把一個季度的數字太當回事，但這就是我們想要看到的數字。
同時，日本股價暴漲，日元貶值。諸位可能心有疑惑，我來解釋一下：日元貶值對日本有好處，因為這使得日本的出口產業更具競爭力。
一些觀察人士對日本不斷上漲的長期利率發出警告，儘管這些利率依然不到1%。但利率和股價一起上漲反映出的是樂觀主義情緒在增加，而不是對日本償付能力的擔心。
毫無疑問，周四日本股市出現拋售，給這種樂觀看法略有打擊。但是股市依然遠高於去年，我年紀夠大還記得1987年的那個黑色星期一，當時美國股市在沒有任何明顯原因的情況下突然下跌超過20%，而當時的經濟恢復進程卻未受到絲毫影響。
因此，對日本逆轉其經濟低迷之勢的努力，我們總體的評價
是：到現在來看還不錯。讓我們希望這個結論能保持下去，並隨時間慢慢加強。因為如果安倍經濟學奏效，將具有一箭雙鵰的作用，給日本帶來它所繼續的增長，另
外，針對政策的軟弱無力，它也會給我們其他人帶來一劑更加需要的解藥。
正如我在一開始所說的，現在，西方世界似乎已屈服於一種嚴重的經濟失敗主義；我們甚至都沒有試圖去解決自己的問題。這種情況需要改變——或許，僅僅是或許，日本能成為促成這種改變的重要因素。
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