日本自動販賣機競爭激烈

自動售貨機，日本戰勝通縮的頑固障礙

HIROKO TABUCHI 2013年06月04日

Yuriko Nakao/Reuters

日本的自動販賣機已成為國家應對通貨緊縮的晴雨表。

東京——從素有東京香榭麗舍大街之稱的林蔭購物大道表參道，到箱根等溫泉鎮的小街道，甚至到1.2萬英尺（約3657.6米）、山頂白雪皚皚的富士山上，擺滿汽水的自動售貨機似乎遍布日本每一個角落。

自動售貨機也象徵著日本的經濟大問題：通貨緊縮。15年 來，自動販賣機里的汽水價格巋然不動。現在，喬亞咖啡(Georgia Coffee)、寶礦力水特(Pocari Sweat)或麒麟檸檬汽水(Kirin Lemon soda)一般每罐120日元，約為1.2美元（約合7.3元人民幣）。在一些有折扣的自動售貨機上，每罐可以低至80日元，低於20世紀80年代的價 格。

• 檢視大圖
  Issei Kato/Reuters
  日本銀座的迪奧專賣店，政府的貨幣政策幫助提升奢侈品價格。

自從去年12月就職以來，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)把扭轉通貨緊縮作為首要任務，為日本經濟注入低利借款，並增加公共支出，以強力推動增長。

這些舉措幫助抬高了法拉利、高爾夫俱樂部會員資格、高端房地產及名酒價格。但是，迄今為止，政府的舉措並未對日用品產生多少影響，例如一罐汽水的價格。

儘管原材料及能源成本在上升，但飲料公司不能輕易提價，否則利潤會有風險。競爭很激烈，而且消費者仍然不願意花錢。

日本機器服務公司(Japan Machine Service)在全東京約300台自動售貨機上以80元每罐的價格出售罐裝飲料。該公司負責人片桐重雄（Shigeo Katagiri，音譯）說：「市場競爭很激烈，如果我們先漲價，我們就不要做了。」

零售業、消費電子產品及其他產業，存在的也是這種問題。這也是安倍晉三致力於扭轉通貨緊縮進程中最大的阻礙之一。

理論上，安倍晉三的經濟計劃是有道理的。經濟中有更多的貨幣流通，價格應該更高，並且有助於催生一個更多投資、利潤、工資、支出及增長的良性循環。這也使日元貶值，幫助出口商出口更多商品，並提高進口產品價格。例如，蘋果(Apple)的iPad漲價了。

儘管早期的跡象令人振奮，但是這些舉措是否有持續效果，他 的目標能否實現，還要拭目以待。一些經濟學家懷疑，他是否真能在兩年內實現他的2%通脹目標。對於多數國家來說，這個目標不算大，但是對日本來說，卻高的 離譜。迄今為止，在日本這個僅15%家庭持有股票的國家，股市回暖並未過多影響工資及財富。而且，儘管經濟行情見漲，消費者卻仍然節儉；周五的政府報告 稱，消費者支出已經冷卻了下來。

東京海上資產管理投資株式會社(Tokio Marine Asset Management)的首席資金經理平山賢一(Kenichi Hirayama)稱：「收入的增加依然僅限於一部分人。」

在許多方面，自動販賣機的演變，代表着日本的希望及問題。

20世紀60年代，在日本戰後的經濟熱潮及收入上漲中，可口可樂公司(Coca-Cola)將第一台自動售貨機引進日本，每罐飲料售價約為50日元。1973年，日本創業企業百佳公司(Pokka)開發了第一台出售熱飲料的自動售貨機。

隨後，隨着油價高漲導致通貨膨脹，每罐飲料的價格以每年10日元的幅度連續三年上漲。到1983年賣到了每罐100日元，1998年為120日元。

然後，日本經濟泡沫破滅，日本陷入通貨緊縮及經濟停滯。多數飲料公司並未降價，選擇承受更低的利潤，因為消費者在減少支出。但是眾多像片桐重雄的日本機器服務公司這樣的第三方自動販賣機運營者，開始以低利潤及低於生產商建議的價格出售汽水。

到21世紀第一個十年的中期，甚至折扣飲料市場都開始飽和。飲料市場研究及諮詢公司飲料研究(Inryou Souken)估計，現在東京約有30%的自動販賣機出售低於120日元的飲料。

日本自動售貨機工業協會(Japan Vending Machine Manufacturers Association)稱，現在，日本街頭有約380萬台自動售貨機，換句話說，就是每33個人就有一台。約三分之二的機器出售飲料，由飲料廠商或第三 方銷售者維護。（其他機器出售從香蕉到文具等各種商品。）

日本有幾十家飲料大廠，數不清的飲料銷售商，惡性競爭及微薄利潤成了這一行的常態。

朝日飲品(Asahi Soft Drinks)賣的最好的飲料是Wonda早咖啡(Wonda Morning Shot Coffee)、三津屋蘋果酒(Mitsuya Cider)及十六茶(Juroku-Cha)綠茶系列。該公司表示沒有漲價計劃。公司在東京的發言人板野明美(Akemi Banno，音譯)稱，「我們想在別的地方削減成本，這樣就不必把高價轉嫁給消費者。」

分析人士稱，該產業要重新實現供需平衡，就要通過合并、收購、退出甚至是破產，進行優勝劣汰。

但是這些情況出現的很緩慢，由於勞動法很嚴苛，從未聽過說大規模的全職僱員被裁員事件。合并與收購仍然相對困難。股東也不會迫使那些獲利極少甚至賠錢的企業退出市場。

有些改變的跡象。去年，飲料生產者札幌飲品 (Sapporo)及百佳合并，提高了市場鞏固的信心。然而，這兩家公司一起，也只佔到仍然支離破碎的飲料市場的不足3%。業內領袖麒麟及三得利此前的合 并洽談以失敗告終。周三，三得利啤酒及食品公司(Suntory Beverage and Food)獲批在東京股票交易所(Tokyo Stock Exchange)上市，給以海外擴張為目的的首次公開募股鋪平了道路。

一些公司利用日本人痴迷健康的心理，成功地為號稱有藥效的飲料制定了更高價格。例如，花王(Kao)稱自己的健康咖啡(Healthya coffee)含有特殊多酚，有助於燃燒脂肪，每瓶賣150日元。

飲料研究的飲料業專家宮下一博(Kazuhiro Miyashita，音譯)稱：「這是唯一的出路，只有能提高價格的公司才能繁榮發展。」

翻譯：梁英

One Obstacle Won’t Budge in Japan’s Fight With Deflation

By HIROKO TABUCHI June 04, 2013

 

TOKYO — Vending machines stocked with sodas are ubiquitous here, tucked away, it seems, in every nook and cranny of the country. They are found along Omotesando, the tree-lined shopping avenue known as the Champs-Élysées of Tokyo, and their glow lights up the back streets of hot spring towns like Hakone. They are even atop Mount Fuji, Japan’s 12,000-foot, snow-capped mountain.

The vending machines are also a symbol of the country’s big economic problem: deflation. The price of a soda in a vending machine has stubbornly remained the same for 15 years. Now, as back then, a can of Georgia Coffee, Pocari Sweat sports drink or Kirin Lemon soda typically sells for 120 yen, roughly $1.20. Some discount machines sell cans for as little as 80 yen, less than the price they fetched in the 1980s.

Since taking office in December, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made fighting deflation a priority, pumping the Japanese economy with cheap money and bolstering public spending in a bid to kick-start growth.

Such moves have helped stoke the prices of luxury goods like Ferraris, golf club memberships, prime real estate and vintage wines. But so far, the government’s efforts have not had much effect on everyday items, like a can of soda.

Despite the rising cost of raw materials and energy, beverage companies cannot easily raise prices without risking profits. Competition is fierce and consumers remain reluctant to spend.

“If we raised prices first in this cutthroat market, we’d be finished,” said Shigeo Katagiri, who runs the Japan Machine Service, a company that sells canned drinks for 80 yen at about 300 vending machines across Tokyo.

It’s a dynamic that’s playing out in retail, consumer electronics and other industries — and one of Mr. Abe’s biggest obstacles in his efforts to fight deflation.

In theory, Mr. Abe’s economic plan makes sense. More money circulating in the economy should lead to higher prices, and help generate a positive cycle of more investment, profits, wages, spending and growth. It also weakens the yen, which helps exporters sell more goods overseas and raises the price of imports. The prices of Apple iPads, for example, have jumped.

While the early signs are encouraging, it remains to be seen whether such efforts are sustainable and his goals are achievable. Some economists doubt that he can really meet his target of 2 percent inflation in two years. It’s an unspectacular rate for most countries, but a tall order for Japan. So far, the rally in Japan’s stock market has not significantly rubbed off on wages or wealth in a country where just 15 percent of households hold shares, according to a recent Bank of Japan survey. And despite the rising economic sentiment, consumers remain thrifty; the government reported on Friday that consumer spending had cooled.

“Income is still rising only for just a limited number of people,” said Kenichi Hirayama, chief fund manager at Tokio Marine Asset Management.

In many ways, the evolution of vending machines represents the country’s promise and its problems.

In the 1960s, as Japan’s postwar economy boomed and income rose, Coca-Cola brought the first vending machines to the country, selling cans for about 50 yen. In 1973, the Japanese upstart Pokka developed the first vending machine to sell hot drinks.

After that, the price of a can jumped 10 yen each for three consecutive years, as surging oil prices caused inflation. By 1983, cans were selling for 100 yen, and by 1998, they went for 120 yen.

Then Japan’s economy burst, and the country fell into deflation and economic stagnation. Most drink companies did not lower prices, preferring instead to live with lower profits as consumers cut back on spending. But a flurry of third-party vending machine operators, like Mr. Katagiri’s Japan Machine Service, started to source soda on the cheap and sell cans for less than the manufacturer’s suggested price.

By the mid-2000s, even the discount drinks market had become saturated. The beverage market research and consulting company Inryou Souken estimates that about 30 percent of vending machines in Tokyo currently sell cans for less than 120 yen.

Today, some 3.8 million vending machines line Japan’s streets, or about 1 for every 33 people, according to the Japan Vending Machine Manufacturers Association. About two-thirds of the machines sell drinks, and are maintained by the drink makers, or third-party sellers. (The rest sell items as varied as bananas and stationery.)

With more than a dozen national drink makers and countless sellers, crippling rivalries and razor-thin profits have become the norm of doing business.

Asahi Soft Drinks, whose top-selling drinks are the Wonda Morning Shot Coffee, Mitsuya Cider and Juroku-Cha green tea series, said it had no plans to raise prices. “We intend to make cuts elsewhere so we don’t have to pass on higher prices to our customers,” said Akemi Banno, a Tokyo-based spokeswoman for the company.

To bring supply and demand back into balance, analysts say the industry needs a shakeout, through mergers, takeovers, exits and perhaps even failures.

But that has been slow to happen. Mass layoffs of full-time workers are unheard-of, thanks to rigid labor laws. Mergers and takeovers are still relatively difficult. And shareholders do not pressure companies to exit businesses with razor-thin margins or even ones that lose money.

There are some signs of change. Drink makers Sapporo and Pokka merged last year, raising hopes for more market consolidation. The companies together, however, represent less than 3 percent of a still-fragmented soft drink market. Earlier merger talks between industry leaders Kirin and Suntory ended in failure. On Wednesday, Suntory Beverage and Food got approval from the Tokyo Stock Exchange to list, paving the way for an initial public offering to raise funds to expand overseas. 

Some companies have had success in charging higher prices for drinks that claim to have medical benefits, tapping into a Japanese obsession with health. For example. Kao’s Healthya coffee contains special polyphenols that the company claims assist fat burning, and sells for 150 yen each.

“That’s one way to go,” said Kazuhiro Miyashita, a drinks industry expert. “Only companies that can raise prices can thrive.”