竹島日 Takeshima Day,Shinzo Abe Plays It Safe, With Early Results

「安倍經濟學」初見效，7月面臨大考

MARTIN FACKLER 報道 2013年02月20日

Toru Hanai/Reuters

日本首相安倍晉三將於本周訪問華盛頓，他上任後的一系列經濟政策提振了東京股市。

東京——自從一個多月前就職，日本直言不諱的鷹派新首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)一直處於某些政治分析人士所說的“安全駕駛模式”。他謹慎地避免了任何可能激怒其他亞洲國家的言行，轉而關注如何採取措施重振死氣沉沉的國內經濟來討好選民。
截至目前，安倍晉三的方法似乎正在發揮作用。他的公共工程計劃，也就是被稱為“安倍經濟學”的刺激措施，已讓東京股市與他個人的支持率雙雙飆升。 《讀賣新聞》(Yomiuri Shimbun)的最新民調顯示，他目前的支持率為71%。本周五，與奧巴馬總統在華盛頓舉行的峰會上見面時，他將尋求鞏固自己的強勁開局。美國將日本視 作最重要的亞洲盟國，本次峰會旨在加強兩國的關係。

現年58歲的安倍晉三稱，他希望成為日本近10年來未曾見過的領導人：行事穩健，從而擁有足夠的在任時間來真正有所作為。分析人士稱，他的成功將取決於他能否帶領自民黨取得今年7月的參議院選舉勝利，並終結讓眾多前任鎩羽而歸的國會分裂狀態。
不甚明朗的是，如果能贏得這次選舉，他將如何行事。一些分析人士稱，安倍晉三之所以有點難以捉摸，是因為他似乎有兩面性的特點，他既是現實主義者， 又信奉右翼意識形態。在分析人士看來，如果他的確摒棄目前的某些謹慎做派，比如尋求修改日本的和平憲法，放棄目前的自衛隊，轉而允許進行全面軍事建設，那 麼他將面臨與中國就爭議島嶼僵持不下的風險，並且可能讓日本在亞洲陷入孤立，因為該地區對日本20世紀初的軍國主義歷史依舊敏感。
安德魯·L·奧羅斯(Andrew L. Oros)是位於馬里蘭州切斯特敦的華盛頓學院(Washington College)的國際研究主任，他說，“上任的最初六周里，安倍晉三使盡全身解數來表明自己是個溫和派。但是過了7月份，他可能覺得手腳更放開，可以做 自認為正確的事了。”

奧羅斯等人稱，問題部分在於，安倍晉三面臨著相互衝突的政治壓力。他在執政黨內部最保守一翼的政治基礎希望他能採取大膽舉措，結束在他們看來日本二 戰後沒完沒了的懺悔姿態。但是，他還必須讓更多的大眾信服，他是個頭腦冷靜、有能力的領導人，能夠守護這個經濟未來繫於中國的衰落中的國家。
除此之外，還有他過去失敗的陰影。六年前擔任首相時，他在一片批評聲中下台，因為他追求修改憲法和歷史教科書的民族主義議程，而在減少失業和刺激經濟方面作為有限，被指“毫無頭緒”。
這一次，就像任何一位重獲機會的人一樣，安倍晉三毫不遲疑地堅持謹慎行事。他專註於讓世界第三大經濟體擺脫衰退，採取了能迅速重振日本經濟的措施。 去年12月，他領導的自民黨獲得選舉勝利，使之成為首相。自那以後，他承諾將在公共工程中投資2150億美元（約合1.34萬億元人民幣），用以創造就業 崗位並促進增長。
他還公開向央行日本銀行(Bank of Japan)施壓，要求該行更積極地行動，以結束多年來侵蝕經濟的價格下跌現象，即通貨緊縮。
“安倍晉三顯然已經從過去的失敗中汲取了教訓，”東京附近的駿河台大學(Surugadai University)的政治學者成田憲彥(Norihiko Narita)說。“最大的教訓就是，選民更關注經濟問題。”
“安倍經濟學”已經對日元產生了影響，僅在四個月的時間裡就讓日元貶值了20%。由於日貨在海外市場的價格降低，日本原本舉步維艱的出口行業得到改善，但這也引發了對一場貿易大戰的警告，因為其他國家也會競相壓低自己的貨幣價值。
然而，對“安倍經濟學”最大的批評是，這些政策只會給經濟打上一劑短效的強心針，帶來的不過是過多的大橋和公路而已，還會增加日本已經令人窒息的國 債。經濟學家稱，到目前為止，安倍晉三的政策幾乎沒有涉及更深層次的結構性改革，而他們認為，只有這樣的結構性改革才能為日本的僵化經濟帶來競爭力，從而 產生可持續增長。
他們說，最具象徵意義的一步就是加入跨太平洋的自由貿易協定，這會迫使日本開放其受保護的國內市場，如農產品。安倍晉三似乎個人傾向於加入《跨太平 洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)，美國支持該協定，稱這會把具有經濟活力的地區聯合在一起。日本和美國官員稱，安倍晉三甚至可能會私下向奧巴馬承諾日本將很快加 入協定。但他不敢公開這麼說，因為他擔心這樣做會疏遠長期以來支持自民黨的農民群體，至少不能在7月選舉前說。
同樣，安倍晉三還擔心自己會激怒沖繩選民，這種擔心也有可能阻止安倍推進另一議程，即不受歡迎的美國空軍普天間基地的遷移問題，長久以來，這已在美日兩國間引發了一些問題。這讓一些分析人士揣測，安倍晉三的華盛頓之行究竟能產生怎樣的結果。
美日峰會的計劃似乎一開始就不順利。上月，日本方面提出的訪美請求遭到奧巴馬政府拒絕，美方稱自己還沒有做好準備。日本的小報紛紛稱這是美國在怠慢日本。或許是為了做出補償，美國方面延長了安倍晉三和奧巴馬會晤的時間，還在行程表上增加了白宮午宴一項。
對安倍晉三來說，在爭議島嶼的控制權方面，日本面臨著來自中國日益嚴重的挑戰，在這種情況下，加強和美國的聯繫至關重要。日本稱爭議島嶼為尖閣諸島 (Senkaku)，中國則稱之為釣魚島。分析人士稱，安倍晉三可能會告訴奧巴馬，他想讓日本在美國國防部面臨大幅預算削減時成為美國更強大的軍事夥伴。 但尚不清楚的是，修改日本憲法等更激進的措施是否能被大多數日本選民接受，他們還是希望安倍晉三繼續溫和路線。
“安倍晉三較主流意識形態偏右，”東京一橋大學(Hitotsubashi University)的政治學教授中北浩爾(Koji Nakakita)說，“這給他帶來了很大的潛在風險。”

For His Second Act, Japanese Premier Plays It Safe, With Early Results

By MARTIN FACKLER February 20, 2013

TOKYO — Since taking office less than two months ago, Japan’s outspokenly hawkish new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has been in what some political analysts are calling “safe driving mode.” He has carefully avoided saying or doing anything to provoke other Asian nations, while focusing instead on wooing voters with steps to revive the moribund domestic economy.
So far, his approach seems to be working. His plans for public-works projects, stimulus measures called “Abenomics,” have sent the Tokyo stock market surging along with Mr. Abe’s own approval rating, which is now at 71 percent, according to the latest poll by Yomiuri Shimbun. On Friday, he will seek to build on his strong start when he meets President Obama at a Washington summit meeting aimed at improving relations with the United States, which regards Japan as its most important ally in Asia.

Mr. Abe, 58, has said he wants to be what Japan has not seen in almost a decade: a steady-handed leader who lasts long enough in office to actually get things done. Analysts say his success hinges on whether he can lead his Liberal Democratic Party to victory in Upper House elections in July, and end the split Parliament that undermined many of his predecessors.
What is less clear is what he will do if he wins that election. One trait that makes Mr. Abe a bit of an enigma, some analysts say, is that he seems to have two sides: the realist and the right-wing ideologue. In analysts’ view, if he does jettison some of his current caution, for instance by trying to revise Japan’s antiwar Constitution to allow a full-fledged military instead of its current Self-Defense Force, he risks provoking a standoff with China over disputed islands, and possibly isolating Japan in a region still sensitive to its early-20th-century militarism.
“In his first six weeks, he has done everything he can to show he is a moderate,” said Andrew L. Oros, director of international studies at Washington College in Chestertown, Md. “But after July, he might feel he has a freer rein to do things that he thinks are justified.”
Part of the problem, Mr. Oros and others say, is that Mr. Abe faces conflicting political pressures. His base in the governing party’s most conservative wing expects bold steps to end what it sees as Japan’s overly prolonged displays of contrition for World War II. But he must also convince the broader public that he is a coolheaded, competent steward of a declining nation that also depends on China for its economic future.
There is also the ghost of his past failure. The last time he was prime minister, six years ago, he stepped down amid criticism that he had been “clueless” for having pursued a nationalistic agenda of revising the Constitution and history textbooks, and for not doing more to reduce unemployment and spur the economy.
This time, Mr. Abe is acting with the determined carefulness of a man given a second chance. He has focused on extricating Japan from its recession with steps that have quickly buoyed the country’s economy, the world’s third-largest. Since being named prime minister after his party’s election victory in December, Mr. Abe has promised $215 billion in public works spending to create jobs and promote growth.
He has also publicly pressured the central bank, the Bank of Japan, to move more aggressively to end years of corrosive price declines known as deflation.
“Mr. Abe has clearly learned the lessons of his past failure,” said Norihiko Narita, a political scientist at Surugadai University, near Tokyo. “And the biggest lesson is that voters care more about the economy.”
Abenomics has already affected the yen, helping to drive down its value by 20 percent in just four months. This has strengthened Japan’s struggling export industries by making their products cheaper abroad, but also led to warnings of a trade war in which other nations push down the values of their currencies.
However, the biggest criticism of Abenomics is that it will provide only a short-lived adrenaline shot for growth, while producing little more than superfluous bridges and roads, and adding to Japan’s already stifling national debt. Economists say Mr. Abe’s policies so far contain few of the deeper-reaching structural reforms that they say are needed to produce sustainable growth by encouraging competition in Japan’s sclerotic economy.
They say the most symbolic step would be joining a Pacific-wide free trade pact that would force Japan to open sheltered domestic markets, like farm products. Mr. Abe appears to personally favor entering the pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the United States champions as a way of binding the economically vibrant region together. Japanese and American officials say Mr. Abe may even privately promise Mr. Obama that Japan will soon join the pact. But he cannot afford to say so in public for fear of alienating the farmers who have been strong supporters of the Liberal Democrats — at least not until the July elections.
Similarly, fears of angering voters on Okinawa will also likely prevent Mr. Abe from offering progress on another issue that has long caused problems with the United States, the relocation of the unpopular American air base at Futenma. This has led some analysts to wonder what Mr. Abe’s visit to Washington will actually be able to produce.
Plans for the summit meeting seemed to get off to a rocky start last month when the administration declined a Japanese request for a visit, saying the American side was not ready. This was reported as a snub in Japan’s tabloid press. Perhaps to make amends, the Americans have increased the time that Mr. Abe will spend with Mr. Obama, adding a luncheon at the White House to the schedule.
For Mr. Abe, strengthening ties with the United States is crucial as Japan faces a growing challenge from China for control of the disputed islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Analysts say Mr. Abe will probably tell Mr. Obama that he wants Japan to act as a fuller military partner with the United States, at a time when the Pentagon faces steep budget cuts. But it is unclear if more radical steps, like rewriting the Constitution, would sit well with the majority of Japanese voters who wish Mr. Abe to remain moderate.
“Mr. Abe is to the right of the mainstream,” said Koji Nakakita, a politics professor at Tokyo’s Hitotsubashi University, “and that carries a huge potential risk for him.”

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