7/29日本參議院大選結果揭曉，執政聯盟「自民黨」與「公民黨」不出外界預期，在這次改選中慘敗，喪失參院過半席 次；雖然自民黨總裁、也是現任日本首相「安倍晉三」表明不會辭職，但最大在野黨「民主黨」取得這次勝利後，不但首度成為參院最大黨，民主黨也宣稱下一步要 團結各在野政黨解散眾議院，促成日本政黨輪替。日本政局發展，值得密切注意。（葉柏毅報導）
如果把日本在二十九號的參議院改選，當做對日 本首相「安倍晉三」執政十個月的測驗，那麼顯然以安倍晉三為首的執政聯盟，考了個不及格，日本執政聯盟的自民、公民兩黨，失去了參議院的多數席次；雖然日 本內閣是以眾議院最大黨或最大聯盟組成的，但是參議院慘敗，卻是日本政壇重要的風向球，前日本首相「橋本龍太郎」，就是因為自民黨在1998年七月參議院 大選中落敗，而辭去自民黨黨魁與日本首相職位，因此日本執政聯盟這次參院選舉大敗，先不要說一心想要促成政黨輪替的在野黨「民主黨」了，日本執政聯盟內部 會產生什麼樣的變化，安倍晉三是否還能夠維持本身的領導威信，都值得觀察。
這次參議院改選讓民主黨士氣大振，民主黨更把話挑明了說，日本之後的政局發展，就是朝野對決；民主黨打算先取得參議院院長，掌握參議院主導權，再以參議院為基礎，動搖日本執政聯盟，進而促成儘早解散眾議院，再以這樣的氣勢，拿下眾議院多數，實現政黨輪替。
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日本國會參議院選舉投票２９日舉行，在投票前進行的民意調查顯示，執政的自民黨選情不容樂觀。以下是關於日本參議院及選舉的簡單介紹。
參議院：在日本國會的參眾兩院中，參議院的權力沒有眾議院大，政府的預算和條約可以不經參議院批准，日本首相由眾議院選舉產生。參議院能否決眾議院批准的議案，在這種情況下，相關議案必須得到眾議院三分之二議員的支援才能獲得通過。
席位：日本參議院共有２４２個議席，議員任期６年，每三年改選一半。在２００４年７月舉行的參議院選舉中，自民黨和執政聯盟公明黨贏得了６０個席位，確保了在參議院中的多數席位。
選舉議席分配：參議院選舉分為小選區和比例代表選區兩部分，小選區由選民直接對候選人進行投票，而比例代表選區則是由選民對各政黨進行投票，並根據得票數多少，按一定比例給各政黨分配議席。在此次日本參議院改選的１２１個議席中，小選區和比例代表選區分別有７３個議席和４８個議席。
候選人：共有３７７名候選人參加此次參議院選舉角逐。其中，執政的自民黨推舉了８３名候選人，最大在野黨民主黨推舉了８０名候選人，其他政黨推舉的候選人共２１４人。
選舉勝負：聯合執政的自民黨和 公明黨現在參議院分別擁有１０９個席位和２３個席位。如果兩黨要想繼續控制參議院，必須在此次選舉中贏得１２１個改選席位中的６４席。如果公明黨的１３名 候選人全部獲勝，自民黨至少需要拿下５１個席位。從選前的民意調查結果看，執政聯盟要想取得這一成績，難度不小。
選民：根據日本政府公佈的統計數字，有資格參加此次參議院選舉的選民人數約為1.04億人。
投票率：2001年和2004年日本參議院選舉的投票率分別是56.4％和56.5％。在２００４年的選舉中，不同地區的投票率相差很大。（新華社電）
Minshuto hands LDP historic loss
07/30/2007
BY ROY K. AKAGAWA, STAFF WRITER
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, brought in as the election "face" of the Liberal Democratic Party, has bombed in his first major test, a failure that could cost him his job.
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) was coasting to victory in Sunday's Upper House election, pushing the ruling coalition into a minority position.
Early returns and projections from exit polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun showed the LDP falling far short of the 64 seats it had up for grabs in the election.
Although the prime minister accepted responsibility for the LDP's defeat, he said he had no intention of resigning.
"I promised to carry out measures to build a new nation when I took office, and I feel it is my responsibility to fulfill that promise," Abe said in a televised interview.
The big winner in Sunday's vote was opposition Minshuto, which was on its way to finishing with the most seats in the Upper House of any party, according to early returns.
It would be the first time the LDP is not the largest party in the upper chamber.
Traditionally, the Upper House president is chosen from the party with the most seats. That would give Minshuto a tremendous advantage in preventing the ruling coalition from forcing the passage of its bills--a tactic often used in the previous Diet session.
Minshuto and the other opposition parties could not only block such legislation, but the Upper House president could also decide how sessions were handled.
The LDP's junior coalition partner, New Komeito, was unable to pick up the slack Sunday, falling in danger of failing to retain the 12 seats it had up for grabs.
Asahi exit polls indicated that not only did Minshuto win over unaffiliated voters, but it also cut into the LDP support base.
Voter turnout was about 59 percent, a slight increase from 56.57 percent in the 2004 Upper House election.
The other major opposition parties--the Japanese Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party and Kokumin Shinto (People's New Party)--did not capitalize on voter disgust of the ruling coalition to the same extent as Minshuto.
Minshuto chief Ichiro Ozawa had promised to retire from politics if he failed to drive the ruling coalition into the minority. The veteran political strategist will now turn his sights toward the next Lower House election, which could actually lead to a change in government because the chamber's selection of prime minister has precedence over the Upper House.
Before and during the campaign, Abe never said what number of Upper House seats would represent a win for the LDP. He also stopped short of stating that he would step down as prime minister if the ruling coalition failed to maintain its majority.
Although Hidenao Nakagawa, secretary-general of the LDP, and Mikio Aoki, head of the LDP's Upper House caucus, indicated they would step down, party members may demand more heads to roll.
Another LDP bigwig, Toranosuke Katayama, was headed for defeat Sunday.
The LDP faced the possibility of failing to match even the 44 seats it gained in its disastrous showing in the 1998 Upper House election. After that election, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto resigned.
Abe, 52, was elected LDP president last September mainly because he was considered the most popular politician capable of leading as the face of the LDP in national elections.
However, his youth was apparently not enough to overcome doubts by voters about his lack of experience and questions about his leadership abilities.
Perhaps the clincher for Minshuto was the emergence of about 50 million pension accounts whose rightful owners are not known.
Abe was also plagued by scandal from the early days of his administration. In the end, three Cabinet ministers had to be replaced within nine months, including Toshikatsu Matsuoka, the farm minister who committed suicide after being hounded about questionable office expenses.
Genichiro Sata resigned as administrative reform minister in a similar scandal. And Fumio Kyuma stepped down as defense minister after making a comment that seemed to legitimize the 1945 atomic bombing of Nagasaki.(IHT/Asahi: July 30,2007)
ＮＨＫなどの開票速報によると、自民党は１人区の多くで前職候補が敗れ、獲得議席数は橋本龍太郎元首相の退陣につながった１９９８年の参院選の４４ 議席を下回り、３０日午前１時５０分現在で３５議席にとどまり、公明党も目標の１３議席を下回る８議席となっている。特に勝敗を決すると見られていた１人 区では、四国４県で自民党候補が全敗したのを初め、与党惨敗の構図が浮かび上がった。これに対して民主党は、改選議席３２に対し、５９議席を獲得した。
安倍首相は２９日夜、ＮＨＫなどテレビのインタビューで、参院選の結果にかかわらず、今後も政権を担っていくとして続投の意向を表明。自民党の中川秀直幹事長は選挙での大敗を受けて安倍首相に辞表を提出。青木幹雄参院議員会長も引責辞任の考えを示した。
民主党では、鳩山由紀夫幹事長が同日夜、参院選で大幅に議席が伸びた理由について「２大政党政治への期待感が高まっていることが示された」と述べ、菅直 人代表代行は、安倍首相の続投表明を「国民の声に反する行動で、どこまでもつのか。（安倍氏の）政治家としてのあり方が問われている」と国民が安倍政権に 不信任を突きつけたとの考えを示した。
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, brought in as the election "face" of the Liberal Democratic Party, has bombed in his first major test, a failure that could cost him his job.
 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces an uncertain future after the ruling coalition's drubbing in the Upper House election on Sunday. (THE ASAHI SHIMBUN) |
Early returns and projections from exit polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun showed the LDP falling far short of the 64 seats it had up for grabs in the election.
Although the prime minister accepted responsibility for the LDP's defeat, he said he had no intention of resigning.
"I promised to carry out measures to build a new nation when I took office, and I feel it is my responsibility to fulfill that promise," Abe said in a televised interview.
The big winner in Sunday's vote was opposition Minshuto, which was on its way to finishing with the most seats in the Upper House of any party, according to early returns.
It would be the first time the LDP is not the largest party in the upper chamber.
Traditionally, the Upper House president is chosen from the party with the most seats. That would give Minshuto a tremendous advantage in preventing the ruling coalition from forcing the passage of its bills--a tactic often used in the previous Diet session.
Minshuto and the other opposition parties could not only block such legislation, but the Upper House president could also decide how sessions were handled.
The LDP's junior coalition partner, New Komeito, was unable to pick up the slack Sunday, falling in danger of failing to retain the 12 seats it had up for grabs.
Asahi exit polls indicated that not only did Minshuto win over unaffiliated voters, but it also cut into the LDP support base.
Voter turnout was about 59 percent, a slight increase from 56.57 percent in the 2004 Upper House election.
The other major opposition parties--the Japanese Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party and Kokumin Shinto (People's New Party)--did not capitalize on voter disgust of the ruling coalition to the same extent as Minshuto.
Minshuto chief Ichiro Ozawa had promised to retire from politics if he failed to drive the ruling coalition into the minority. The veteran political strategist will now turn his sights toward the next Lower House election, which could actually lead to a change in government because the chamber's selection of prime minister has precedence over the Upper House.
Before and during the campaign, Abe never said what number of Upper House seats would represent a win for the LDP. He also stopped short of stating that he would step down as prime minister if the ruling coalition failed to maintain its majority.
Although Hidenao Nakagawa, secretary-general of the LDP, and Mikio Aoki, head of the LDP's Upper House caucus, indicated they would step down, party members may demand more heads to roll.
Another LDP bigwig, Toranosuke Katayama, was headed for defeat Sunday.
The LDP faced the possibility of failing to match even the 44 seats it gained in its disastrous showing in the 1998 Upper House election. After that election, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto resigned.
Abe, 52, was elected LDP president last September mainly because he was considered the most popular politician capable of leading as the face of the LDP in national elections.
However, his youth was apparently not enough to overcome doubts by voters about his lack of experience and questions about his leadership abilities.
Perhaps the clincher for Minshuto was the emergence of about 50 million pension accounts whose rightful owners are not known.
Abe was also plagued by scandal from the early days of his administration. In the end, three Cabinet ministers had to be replaced within nine months, including Toshikatsu Matsuoka, the farm minister who committed suicide after being hounded about questionable office expenses.
Genichiro Sata resigned as administrative reform minister in a similar scandal. And Fumio Kyuma stepped down as defense minister after making a comment that seemed to legitimize the 1945 atomic bombing of Nagasaki.(IHT/Asahi: July 30,2007)
ＮＨＫなどの開票速報によると、自民党は１人区の多くで前職候補が敗れ、獲得議席数は橋本龍太郎元首相の退陣につながった１９９８年の参院選の４４ 議席を下回り、３０日午前１時５０分現在で３５議席にとどまり、公明党も目標の１３議席を下回る８議席となっている。特に勝敗を決すると見られていた１人 区では、四国４県で自民党候補が全敗したのを初め、与党惨敗の構図が浮かび上がった。これに対して民主党は、改選議席３２に対し、５９議席を獲得した。
安倍首相は２９日夜、ＮＨＫなどテレビのインタビューで、参院選の結果にかかわらず、今後も政権を担っていくとして続投の意向を表明。自民党の中川秀直幹事長は選挙での大敗を受けて安倍首相に辞表を提出。青木幹雄参院議員会長も引責辞任の考えを示した。
民主党では、鳩山由紀夫幹事長が同日夜、参院選で大幅に議席が伸びた理由について「２大政党政治への期待感が高まっていることが示された」と述べ、菅直 人代表代行は、安倍首相の続投表明を「国民の声に反する行動で、どこまでもつのか。（安倍氏の）政治家としてのあり方が問われている」と国民が安倍政権に 不信任を突きつけたとの考えを示した。
Abe agonises
Jul 27th 2007 | TOKYO
From Economist.com
From Economist.com
Japan's ruling party is set for a drubbing
AFP
THE elections on Sunday July 29th for half of the seats in the upper house of the Diet (parliament) in theory have only an indirect impact on who governs Japan. In practice they are crucial test, and not just for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, New Komeito, which looks headed for a humiliating defeat. For the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the elections are a desperate last gamble. The party—a rat’s nest of unlikely bedfellows from right and left—has in the past missed so many opportunities to prove itself a viable alternative that even an overwhelming victory may bring it little closer to tasting real power. The fight has now got dirty. Grandees in the right-wing LDP this week began insisting that a vote for the opposition is a vote for North Korea.The last time the LDP lost its upper-house majority, in 1998, the prime minister of the time, the late Ryutaro Hashimoto, resigned to take responsibility. Some analysts and LDP politicians predict the same fate for Shinzo Abe, prime minister since September. After all, many of the LDP’s troubles flow from public dissatisfaction with Mr Abe’s cabinet, which has had its share of scandals and gaffes; Mr Abe, meanwhile, seemed to have a tin ear—at least until recently—when it came to ordinary folk’s concerns about jobs, pensions and the like. In their campaigns, many LDP candidates running for the upper house have brusquely disowned their prime minister. Newspaper polls, admittedly hardly scientific, have the ruling party trailing well behind the DPJ.
Yet this week Mr Abe made it clear, through colleagues, that he does not plan to resign. Perhaps he can indeed hang on. After all, it is the lower house that chooses the prime minister, and there the LDP has a solid majority following a landslide victory in elections in 2005. As for the upper house, if the LDP falls just a few seats short of a majority, Mr Abe can possibly patch the gap by bringing into the coalition a handful of senators from other parties. A rather bigger loss of seats would increase the mutterings within the LDP against Mr Abe, but it would be a bold if not reckless politician to attempt regicide against a man determined to lead his party and country. On the other hand, a devastating defeat for the LDP, throwing into doubt any ability to govern, and Mr Abe would be hard-pressed to remain in office. But who then would relish replacing him?
As for the DPJ, it is aiming for an upper-house majority as a means later to challenge in a general election the party that has ruled for all but ten months since 1955. Yet even an outright majority will not fill some opposition members with joy. The party’s leader, Ichiro Ozawa, a street-fighter who built his career within the LDP before falling out with that party, has perhaps come into his own for this campaign. He has fielded a more vibrant bunch of candidates than the ruling party, and assiduously campaigned for them, particularly in the rural districts where the traditional LDP machine is no longer powerful. Under Mr Ozawa, the DPJ has thrown out many of its market-oriented policies and reinvented itself as the farmers’ friend and champion of the weak. He has promised to leave politics if the DPJ does not secure an upper-house victory.
That is what worries many of the party’s younger modernisers who have never been happy with Mr Ozawa. Indeed, Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley points out, the need for Mr Abe somehow to find a majority might give DPJ rebels great leverage in negotiations over an alliance with the LDP. Mr Feldman describes it as the Kobayakawa factor*, after the general at the battle of Sekigahara in 1600 that brought the Tokugawa shogunate to power: Kobayakawa, in opposition, had arranged to defect with his forces in mid-fight, and his treachery turned the tide. Whether the tide in the affairs of Mr Abe can turn so easily is harder to imagine.
*Kobayakawa Hideaki (小早川秀秋, 1577–December 1, 1602)
早川秀秋（1582年—1602年12月1日)是日本戰國時代和安土桃山時代的大名。是木下家定的五子，曾經為豐臣秀吉和小早川隆景的養子。妻子是宍戶氏。
[编辑] 生涯
因為木下家定與豐臣秀吉有的關係﹙高台院是家定的妹妹﹚，在三歲的時候正式成為了豐臣秀吉的養子，後來正式命名為羽柴秀俊或羽柴秀詮。成為了小早川隆景的養子以後，改名為秀秋。在元服時所受的官位是「左衛門督」，唐名為「執金吾」，朝廷的官位為「中納言」，統稱「金吾中納言」。在慶長之役中，明軍包圍蔚山城，與小西行長擔當支援行動。生涯的初次上陣，作為總大將秀秋做了很多輕率的行為(把女人，小孩錯當成敵人屠殺)，但是在戰鬥中，他手執長槍，向敵人衝向去，最後成功生擒敵將，十分英勇。但是因為秀秋的屠殺行為，秀秋被豐臣秀吉以筑後國沒有領地召回，當他聽到此消息大怒，後來認為是石田三成向秀吉說謊，於是開始親近德川家康。後來減封於越前的北之庄城。不過在1599年，德川家康可以讓他回復舊領地。
在關原之役中，原本打算跟隨德川家康，但是石田三成催促之下，參加了西軍。在伏見城包圍戰前線活躍，但是石田三成不太認同，再一次與石田三成不和。
到達關原戰場以後，關原之前戰開戰前的一天，西軍其中一個將領大谷吉繼向秀秋承諾，在豐臣秀賴十五歲以前，可以擔任關白一職和得到播磨、近江兩國合共十萬石的領地。
他率領一萬五千部隊在松尾山佈陣，當時秀秋已經成為了東軍的內應，不過開戰不久以後，戰況對西軍有利，宇喜多秀家擊退了福島正則的部隊，而大谷吉繼，則擊退了藤堂高虎的部隊。這個時候，而秀秋卻為加入東軍而猶豫。
之後，德川家康派遣使者送信，下令小早川秀秋攻擊，但是秀秋仍然沒有行動。終於，德川家康下令向小早川秀秋部隊開火，秀秋感到驚慌，於是秀秋有所行動，向大谷吉繼的部隊攻擊。雖然大谷吉繼預先估計小早川秀秋會叛變，但是因為雙方兵力差的開係，最後大谷吉繼自盡。而一部份西軍部隊，脇坂安治、小川祐忠等嚮應秀秋的行動，最後西軍迅速崩潰，終於東軍在關原之戰中取得了勝利。
後來參加對西軍殘留部隊的戰鬥，在佐和山城的攻略戰當中，也立下了不少的戰功，最後被德川家康移封於宇喜多秀氏舊領的備前和美作，合共五十五萬石。
但是在戰後，對西軍背叛的指責，甚至是對他的人身攻擊，精神受措，沉迷於酒色當中。不久，他的精神開始不正常，以為看見大谷吉繼的靈魂。最後，在沒有子嗣繼承下病死，小早川氏正式滅亡。是德川政權以來第一個因為沒有子嗣而改易的氏族。
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