What do Japan’s parties think?

日本经济模式已经破灭。今年第一季度，日本产出创纪录地缩水4%。然而，其经济结构只是该国诸多问题中的一个方面。日本即将迎来一场大选，届时，政权有可能更迭。对于日本而言，这是讨论未来发展方向的一个机会。这个机会不容错过。

日本是全球第二大经济体。但其出口导向型战略却束缚了该国经济，令其任由其它国家的需求摆布。导致第一季度产出暴跌的最大原因，就是出口的下降，而这又进一步压低了私人投资。

赤字消费国需求的下降，使日本遭遇困境，阻碍了日本以及大多数东亚国家的发展。但日本出口商同时还受到了日元升值的冲击；与2007年夏季的低点相比，日元在今年1月份的高点时已升值50%。

尽管本币走强，日本第一季度家庭消费有所下降。实际上，这3个月里唯一有所扩张的部门就是政府；当前政府开支的增长，足以弥补公共基础设施投资的下降。

无论是中国还是美国，一旦再次出现强劲增长，日本都将从中受益。但坐等其它国家的需求恢复，只能导致相对的衰落。与另一个结构上倾向重商主义的强国（德国）一样，日本必须创造国内需求。

不过，日本经济的未来，只是该国需要探讨的问题之一。日本正竭力应对人口老龄化问题，而数十年来，该国低收入劳动者也一直在为停滞不前的薪酬而斗争。如今是集思广益的时候了。

就此而言，日本的政客们辜负了民众的期望。在定于今年秋季举行的下一次大选中，执政的自民党(LDP)似乎注定将败在民主党(DPJ)手下。自民党 符合日本总体上保守的倾向，却派别林立。而民主党则是由社会民主党人和心怀不满的前自民党成员组成的联盟。两党都缺乏连贯的哲学。

两党都做出了确凿、明确的承诺，也都瞄准了狭隘的利益集团。不过，二者都未曾向选民提供足够的信息，使其预见到它们会如何应对国家面临的重大挑战或 意想不到的事件。选民们必须清楚各党的前进方向，而不是被要求参与一些细枝末节的问题。不过，要做到这一点，两党首先必须认清自我。

译者/陈云飞

What do Japan’s parties think?

Editorial 2009-05-22

Japan’s economic model is broken. Output fell in the first quarter by 4 per cent; a record decline. Its economic structure, however, is only one facet of Japan’s problems. The country is approaching an election when a change in government seems likely. This is a chance for the country to debate what it would like to be. It must be seized.

Japan is the world’s second largest economy. Its export-led strategy, however, has beached the country, leaving it at the mercy of others’ appetites. The largest contributor to the first-quarter dive was the decline in exports which, in turn, drove down private investment.

Japan is suffering because demand has fallen in the deficit consumer nations, hobbling it along with much of east Asia. But Japan’s exporters were also knocked back by the strengthening of the yen; at its January 2009 zenith, the currency was 50 per cent stronger than during its summer 2007 nadir.

Even with a strong currency, household consumption fell in the first quarter. Indeed, the only sector which expanded in the three months was the state; current government spending rose enough to offset falls in public infrastructure investment.

When robust growth re-emerges, whether it comes from China or the US, Japan will benefit. But simply awaiting the return of appetites elsewhere is a route to relative decline. Like Germany, another structurally mercantilist powerhouse, Japan must generate demand at home.

The future of the Japanese economy, however, is just one part of the debate that the country needs to have. It is struggling with a greying population, and the country’s low-income workers have struggled with stagnant wages for decades. This is a time for ideas.

In this regard, Japan’s politicians are failing. The ruling Liberal Democratic party looks set to lose the next election – due by the autumn – to the Democratic party of Japan. The LDP fits Japan’s broadly conservative tendencies but is faction-riven. The DPJ, meanwhile, is a coalition of social democrats and disgruntled LDP ex-members. Neither has a coherent philosophy.

Both parties have certain, specific pledges and have targeted narrow interest groups. Neither, however, has told voters enough to let them predict how the parties would respond to the country’s grand challenges or to unforeseen events. Rather than being asked to engage in microdetail, electors need to know in which direction the parties face. But, to achieve that, the parties will need to work out what they think themselves.