現
在的日本，通過增發貨幣來刺激經濟很容易，但要進行結構性改革恐怕會更加困難。股市和外匯市場已經對日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)為重振日本經濟而採取的寬鬆貨幣和財政政策作出了回應。在過去六個月中日圓累計下跌約26%，日經指數累計漲幅則高達60%左右。
那麼所謂的安倍晉三計劃“第三只箭”，即旨在重振經濟的一系列重要的結構性改革又會怎麼樣呢？
到目前為止我們已經看到了一些積極跡象。例如，日本政府計劃在電力市場引入競爭，這應會最終降低消費者的用電成本，幫助抵消因增加石油進口而帶來的電力價格上升壓力。在福島(Fukushima)核事故發生後，日本關閉了核反應堆，並增加了石油進口以彌補能源缺口。
另 外安倍晉三支持日本加入泛太平洋戰略經濟伙伴關系協議（Trans-Pacific Partnership, 簡稱TPP）談判。日本國內的農民對此表示反對，稱廉價的進口農產品將充斥日本市場。但TPP將給日本出口商帶來更多機遇。據彼得森國際經濟研究所 (Peterson Institute for International Economics)估計，到2025年，加入TPP將推動日本出口增長12%，出口收入將因此增加逾1,000億美元，相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的 2%。
需要做的還很多。安倍晉三應該解決的一個問題是日本女性勞動參與率較低。國際貨 幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, 簡稱IMF)預計，如果日本女性勞動參與率從63%提高至其他發達國家的平均水平70%，日本的人均GDP將因此而提升4%。日本政府可以通過取消供養配 偶的稅收減免等方式來提高女性勞動參與程度，因此增加的稅收收入可以用來增加育兒補貼。
另外一個重要的問題是移民。日本必須採取更多措施 來允許海外勞工填補育兒和養老方面的勞動力缺口。這將有利於擴大勞動力人口，並同時解放被迫留在家中的看護群體。此外，鑒於日本人的預期壽命在全球是最高 的，日本政府可以將退休年齡提高到65歲以上，這不僅可以節省公共開支，還可以減緩勞動力的萎縮速度。
IMF估計，僅這些針對勞動力市場的舉措就能給日本每年的潛在增長率帶來0.5個百分點的提振。
其 他一些措施也可以產生顯著的影響。例如，必須改善日本公司治理來限制企業間的交叉持股，迫使董事會吸納更多獨立董事，這應該會有助於打破日本保守的企業文 化，促進企業創新及效率的提升。日本還應繼續推進已經陷入停滯的國際會計準則推廣，在連續曝出會計醜聞後，此舉將有利於樹立海外投資者的信心。此外，朗伯 德街研究所(Lombard Street Research)指出，對現行公司稅制度進行改革也將有利於經濟的發展，可以通過打擊企業的現金留存鼓勵他們將更多的利潤返還給股東，消費者可能因此而 增加開支，進而幫助日本擺脫通貨緊縮頑疾。
近年來日本首相的任期普遍較短，因此安倍晉三應盡快放出他的第三只箭。到目前為止市場對安倍經濟學的積極回應為他贏得了一些寶貴的時間，安倍金三必須要有足夠的智慧來對此加以利用。
Aaron Back
兩年終結通縮 說到做到
圖片來源：GettyImages提供
日銀總裁黑田東彥，魄力令人耳目一新，日股一片漲聲叫好。但安倍內閣能否進行結構性改革，還未見分曉。
日本社會，終於感受到了日本銀行終結通縮的決心。
新任總裁黑田東彥，宣布推出大規模貨幣寬鬆方案後的週末，新成立的日本女子樂團「街角景氣Japan」，在東京熱鬧開唱。
演唱會前，她們宣布，如果日經指數收復一萬三千點，她們將脫裙慶祝。結果，大關破了，她們也脫了。
日銀本次的寬鬆貨幣措施，和以往截然不同。過去近十五年來，日本飽受通貨緊縮之苦，許多人歸咎於日本銀行缺乏決心。
去年，首相安倍晉三上任，便宣示，若日銀再不採取行動，將削弱其獨立性。今年一月，日本央行被迫立下「通貨膨脹二％」的目標。
結果，四月四日，日銀給安倍的，比他要的還多。
日銀總裁黑田宣布，將貨幣供給量和公債持有金額都增加一倍，並將公債期限由原來的三年拉長至七年。日銀更將貨幣寬鬆政策納入日常業務範圍，以示其推動決心。
這次，日銀不再拐彎抹角。兩年內達成通貨膨脹二％的目標，是「說到做到」。
前任日銀總裁白川方明，在任時試圖避開大規模貨幣寬鬆政策，可能帶來的兩大風險。
一、日本國債規模已達GDP的二．四倍。一旦通貨膨脹來臨，利率升高，政府債務危機恐亮紅燈。二、薪資不會成長，而隨著商品與服務價格上揚，家庭收支將相對縮水。
目前，儘管部份大型企業，已宣布為員工加薪，但掌握大部份就業人口的中小企業，尚無加薪趨勢。
新任總裁黑田東彥，宣布推出大規模貨幣寬鬆方案後的週末，新成立的日本女子樂團「街角景氣Japan」，在東京熱鬧開唱。
演唱會前，她們宣布，如果日經指數收復一萬三千點，她們將脫裙慶祝。結果，大關破了，她們也脫了。
日銀本次的寬鬆貨幣措施，和以往截然不同。過去近十五年來，日本飽受通貨緊縮之苦，許多人歸咎於日本銀行缺乏決心。
去年，首相安倍晉三上任，便宣示，若日銀再不採取行動，將削弱其獨立性。今年一月，日本央行被迫立下「通貨膨脹二％」的目標。
結果，四月四日，日銀給安倍的，比他要的還多。
日銀總裁黑田宣布，將貨幣供給量和公債持有金額都增加一倍，並將公債期限由原來的三年拉長至七年。日銀更將貨幣寬鬆政策納入日常業務範圍，以示其推動決心。
這次，日銀不再拐彎抹角。兩年內達成通貨膨脹二％的目標，是「說到做到」。
前任日銀總裁白川方明，在任時試圖避開大規模貨幣寬鬆政策，可能帶來的兩大風險。
一、日本國債規模已達GDP的二．四倍。一旦通貨膨脹來臨，利率升高，政府債務危機恐亮紅燈。二、薪資不會成長，而隨著商品與服務價格上揚，家庭收支將相對縮水。
目前，儘管部份大型企業，已宣布為員工加薪，但掌握大部份就業人口的中小企業，尚無加薪趨勢。
Abe lays out next steps in growth revival
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe outlined
the next steps of his grand plan for restoring Japan's economic power in
a news conference April 19. (The Asahi Shimbun)
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe outlined the next steps of
his grand plan for restoring Japan's economic power in a news conference
April 19, naming a slew of initiatives he said would help awaken the
country's “sleeping opportunities.”
Japan's future growth will depend on further opening the economy and tapping the underutilized potential of its women and advanced technology, Abe told reporters April 19 as he reviewed his achievements since taking office in late December.
Although economic data so far are mixed, Abe has been keen to claim success in turning the economy around after pushing for a drastic easing of monetary policy aimed at vanquishing chronic deflation, and hiking public spending to stimulate demand.
“Comparing now with four months ago, isn't the atmosphere much brighter?” he said.
Ending the “high yen” era by weakening the Japanese yen's value against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies is another main tenet of the prime minister's “Abenomics” platform. The aim is to make Japanese exports more competitive in global markets, though it has also raised costs for manufacturers who rely on imported energy and commodities.
So far, criticism of that strategy has been muted, though U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said April 17 before Group of 20 talks in Washington that he would keep pressure on Japan and China not to lower the value of their currencies to boost their exports at the expense of the U.S. and other trading partners.
Newly installed Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda's program for ending deflation is a “monetary bazooka,” Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso wrote in a commentary in April 18's edition of the Financial Times that stressed the challenges facing Japan after two decades of stagnation.
The yen has lost over 20 percent of its value versus the U.S. dollar since October. It weakened further after Japanese media reported April 19 in Tokyo that Aso said his G-20 counterparts had avoided criticism over its depreciation. It was trading at about 99.15 to the U.S. dollar late April 19 in Tokyo.
Following the early progress on the policy front, “This momentum must now be turned into a recovery,” Aso said in his commentary. “Finding our hidden strength and changing our mindset is needed for Japan to regain true competitiveness,” he said.
Abe has made politically difficult reforms aimed at improving Japan's waning competitiveness the third and final part of his economic strategy.
“Regarding various ‘sleeping opportunities,’ ... sectors that have low productivity need to shift their resources to sectors that have high productivity. Growth requires nothing other than realizing such changes,” Abe said.
Among the initiatives he sketched out April 19 were plans for a government-backed national institute of health to help support medical research, a proposal to extend parental leave by up to three years, and trial employment programs to encourage more hiring.
Excessively long working hours and a shortage of places at childcare facilities discourage women from staying in the workforce once they become mothers--a luxury Abe says Japan, with its aging and shrinking population, cannot afford.
“The reality is harsh,” Abe said. “For most women it is a choice between either having a children or a career.”
Abe also pledged to conduct vigorous “economic diplomacy,” with upcoming visits to Russia and the Middle East.
Japan and Russia are moving toward more active economic cooperation after decades of chill over a still-unresolved territorial dispute, driven by the complementarity of their economies. Russia has abundant gas and other resources that Japan needs, while Japan is keen to sell its technology and manufacturing prowess to the burgeoning Russian consumer market.
Japan's future growth will depend on further opening the economy and tapping the underutilized potential of its women and advanced technology, Abe told reporters April 19 as he reviewed his achievements since taking office in late December.
Although economic data so far are mixed, Abe has been keen to claim success in turning the economy around after pushing for a drastic easing of monetary policy aimed at vanquishing chronic deflation, and hiking public spending to stimulate demand.
“Comparing now with four months ago, isn't the atmosphere much brighter?” he said.
Ending the “high yen” era by weakening the Japanese yen's value against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies is another main tenet of the prime minister's “Abenomics” platform. The aim is to make Japanese exports more competitive in global markets, though it has also raised costs for manufacturers who rely on imported energy and commodities.
So far, criticism of that strategy has been muted, though U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said April 17 before Group of 20 talks in Washington that he would keep pressure on Japan and China not to lower the value of their currencies to boost their exports at the expense of the U.S. and other trading partners.
Newly installed Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda's program for ending deflation is a “monetary bazooka,” Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso wrote in a commentary in April 18's edition of the Financial Times that stressed the challenges facing Japan after two decades of stagnation.
The yen has lost over 20 percent of its value versus the U.S. dollar since October. It weakened further after Japanese media reported April 19 in Tokyo that Aso said his G-20 counterparts had avoided criticism over its depreciation. It was trading at about 99.15 to the U.S. dollar late April 19 in Tokyo.
Following the early progress on the policy front, “This momentum must now be turned into a recovery,” Aso said in his commentary. “Finding our hidden strength and changing our mindset is needed for Japan to regain true competitiveness,” he said.
Abe has made politically difficult reforms aimed at improving Japan's waning competitiveness the third and final part of his economic strategy.
“Regarding various ‘sleeping opportunities,’ ... sectors that have low productivity need to shift their resources to sectors that have high productivity. Growth requires nothing other than realizing such changes,” Abe said.
Among the initiatives he sketched out April 19 were plans for a government-backed national institute of health to help support medical research, a proposal to extend parental leave by up to three years, and trial employment programs to encourage more hiring.
Excessively long working hours and a shortage of places at childcare facilities discourage women from staying in the workforce once they become mothers--a luxury Abe says Japan, with its aging and shrinking population, cannot afford.
“The reality is harsh,” Abe said. “For most women it is a choice between either having a children or a career.”
Abe also pledged to conduct vigorous “economic diplomacy,” with upcoming visits to Russia and the Middle East.
Japan and Russia are moving toward more active economic cooperation after decades of chill over a still-unresolved territorial dispute, driven by the complementarity of their economies. Russia has abundant gas and other resources that Japan needs, while Japan is keen to sell its technology and manufacturing prowess to the burgeoning Russian consumer market.
沒有留言:
張貼留言