中國政府對日政策強中有變
報道 2012年09月29日
北京——中國政府一度對可能失控的反日示威遊行採取了默許態度，如今則對這些活動進行控制，轉而在東海爭議島嶼問題上展示強硬的外交姿態，以減輕這場衝突對本國的疲軟經濟和敏感的領導層換屆造成的潛在危害。
周四晚，鑒於這兩個亞洲大國的關係已經降至低點，中國決定舉行一個降低了規格的招待會，用以慶祝中日兩國於1972年9月29號恢復邦交關係40周年。中央政治局常務委員會委員賈慶林和其他幾名中國官員出席了慶祝活動。
然而，北京沒有向載有重要日本客人豐田汽車集團(Tokyo sic)董事長的那架飛機頒發降落許可，藉此向東京傳達了一條並不那麼含蓄的訊息。不過，另外一些日本人參加了招待會，中日雙方代表也在位於紐約的聯合國總部展開了私下會談和公開爭論。
據日本報紙《朝日新聞》(Asahi Shimbun)報道，周五，日本出動了海上保安廳半數左右的巡邏艇，在東海的爭議島嶼周圍對為數眾多的中國巡邏船進行密切監視。中國稱這些爭議島嶼為釣魚島及其附屬島嶼，日本則稱之為尖閣諸島。
中國有80多座城市爆發了反日遊行，其中一些發生在市中心，一些在華日本汽車專賣行和電子產品工廠遭到了破壞。這些抗議活動表明中國領導層默許了民 族主義的發泄，部分是為了避免處於權力交接期的共產黨本身受到攻擊。按正規程序，權力交接將在中共第十八屆全國代表大會上進行，會議開始的日期目前已初定 為11月8號 。但是，這些抗議活動有可能把矛頭轉向中國政府本身，外交人員和分析人士稱。
爭端的起因是日本政府決定從日本的私人所有者手中購買三個爭議島嶼。儘管中國已取代日本成為亞洲頭號經濟體，北京對此次爭端的處理方式仍然凸顯了中日經濟的互相依賴，以及領導層對事態發展的容忍限度。
財新傳媒總編輯、中國首屈一指的財經記者胡舒立說，針對日本購買這些自二戰後就歸屬不明的爭議島嶼的行為，實施經濟懲罰的想法並不現實。她說，日資企業中有很多中國僱員，任何矛盾升級帶來的抵制日貨行動都會導致大規模的失業。
對於業已步履蹣跚的中國經濟而言，這可能帶來災難性的後果，胡舒立在中國雜誌《新世紀周刊》中寫道。
胡舒立指出，在外國對華投資整體縮水的情況下，去年的日本對華投資仍然上升了16%。根據日本貿易振興機構(Japan External Trade Organization)的報告，去年日本對華投資為126億美元，對美投資則為147億美元。
中國社會科學院研究員朴光嬉表示，如果日本的對華投資受到威脅，不僅是中國，全亞洲的經濟都可能會受到嚴重打擊。
反日抗議具體是怎麼組織的，由誰組織的，到目前還是個謎。
一份粗略的時間表顯示，在日本政府宣布已購買爭議島嶼之後，北京和其他一些城市立刻爆發了反日抗議。接着，抗議蔓延到其他城市，並在1931年日本侵佔東北三省的9.18事變紀念日當天達到高峰。在此之後，抗議活動遭到禁止。
一位密切關注事態發展的外國外交官說，看起來，高層之前就已討論決定對長達一周的抗議活動採取默許態度。
分析人士稱，抗議活動可能是共產黨內某一派別用來對付另一派別的武器，是圍繞政治局常委職位開展的內部陰謀鬥爭的一部分。然而，即便這些可能性的確存在，它們轉變成現實的具體方式仍然是不清不楚。
一些外交官員表示，官方報紙頭版的大幅彩色照片圖片，尤其是那些反映日本駐北京大使館外抗議活動的照片，不光是高層默許這些示威遊行的證據，同時還表明，從某些方面而言，示威甚至是政府組織的。
這些外交官員指出，官方媒體中很少出現抗議的照片。一位外國外交官說，通過發佈這些照片，政府向中國人民傳達了這樣一個訊息，即參加示威是被允許的。為了遵守相關協議，這位外交官不願具名。
一名市政工作人員說，某次抗議活動當天，早上四點，他們這些平常負責社區安全的市政工作人員被上級召集起來，上了公交車，被帶到日本大使館外的抗議地點，中午還拿到了供應的盒飯。他們當天的職責是和警察一起維持治安。
隨着示威活動不斷升級，越來越多的跡象表明情況很可能失控。北京的幾個抗議者舉着標語，上面寫着“釣魚屬於中國，薄屬於人民。” 薄指的就是薄熙來，被罷黜的中國西部城市重慶市原市委書記。他已經培養起了一大批民粹主義擁護者，但卻在今年落馬，起因是他的妻子被控謀殺一位英國商業夥 伴。
日本大使館外某次抗議的一名旁觀者說，守在抗議人群周圍的便衣警察悄悄收走了這些標語。
大部分示威者都舉着中國國旗，分外顯眼的則是幾個印着前中國領導人毛澤東畫像的標語牌。來自南方城市深圳的一名抗議者在電視上大喊，“打倒共產主義！”
然而，抗議活動的結束並不意味着對日仇恨的終結。
在本月於北京舉行的一次會議上，中國外交政策專家對日本的強烈敵意震驚了西方學者。
首爾延世大學國際問題研究生院(Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies)助理教授約翰·德勒里(John DeLury)說，這些專家談到，應該利用“衝突”來給日本人上一課，因為日本人試圖攫取自古就屬於中國的領土，中國人絕不會接受這樣的行為。
中國駐東京大使館前外交官員任曉表示，中國的新領導層即將全面掌權，與此同時，日本明年的大選可能會產生一個立場保守的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)政府，以態度更加強硬的鷹派政客安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)為首。在這種情況下，緊張局勢的緩和看上去遙遙無期。
“我認為，中國新領導層做出讓步的可能性更小，”目前在上海復旦大學擔任國際政治學教授的任曉說，“可能會執掌日本的自民黨政府也一樣。這就是我對中日關係如此擔憂的原因。”
周四晚，鑒於這兩個亞洲大國的關係已經降至低點，中國決定舉行一個降低了規格的招待會，用以慶祝中日兩國於1972年9月29號恢復邦交關係40周年。中央政治局常務委員會委員賈慶林和其他幾名中國官員出席了慶祝活動。
據日本報紙《朝日新聞》(Asahi Shimbun)報道，周五，日本出動了海上保安廳半數左右的巡邏艇，在東海的爭議島嶼周圍對為數眾多的中國巡邏船進行密切監視。中國稱這些爭議島嶼為釣魚島及其附屬島嶼，日本則稱之為尖閣諸島。
中國有80多座城市爆發了反日遊行，其中一些發生在市中心，一些在華日本汽車專賣行和電子產品工廠遭到了破壞。這些抗議活動表明中國領導層默許了民 族主義的發泄，部分是為了避免處於權力交接期的共產黨本身受到攻擊。按正規程序，權力交接將在中共第十八屆全國代表大會上進行，會議開始的日期目前已初定 為11月8號 。但是，這些抗議活動有可能把矛頭轉向中國政府本身，外交人員和分析人士稱。
爭端的起因是日本政府決定從日本的私人所有者手中購買三個爭議島嶼。儘管中國已取代日本成為亞洲頭號經濟體，北京對此次爭端的處理方式仍然凸顯了中日經濟的互相依賴，以及領導層對事態發展的容忍限度。
財新傳媒總編輯、中國首屈一指的財經記者胡舒立說，針對日本購買這些自二戰後就歸屬不明的爭議島嶼的行為，實施經濟懲罰的想法並不現實。她說，日資企業中有很多中國僱員，任何矛盾升級帶來的抵制日貨行動都會導致大規模的失業。
對於業已步履蹣跚的中國經濟而言，這可能帶來災難性的後果，胡舒立在中國雜誌《新世紀周刊》中寫道。
胡舒立指出，在外國對華投資整體縮水的情況下，去年的日本對華投資仍然上升了16%。根據日本貿易振興機構(Japan External Trade Organization)的報告，去年日本對華投資為126億美元，對美投資則為147億美元。
中國社會科學院研究員朴光嬉表示，如果日本的對華投資受到威脅，不僅是中國，全亞洲的經濟都可能會受到嚴重打擊。
反日抗議具體是怎麼組織的，由誰組織的，到目前還是個謎。
一份粗略的時間表顯示，在日本政府宣布已購買爭議島嶼之後，北京和其他一些城市立刻爆發了反日抗議。接着，抗議蔓延到其他城市，並在1931年日本侵佔東北三省的9.18事變紀念日當天達到高峰。在此之後，抗議活動遭到禁止。
一位密切關注事態發展的外國外交官說，看起來，高層之前就已討論決定對長達一周的抗議活動採取默許態度。
分析人士稱，抗議活動可能是共產黨內某一派別用來對付另一派別的武器，是圍繞政治局常委職位開展的內部陰謀鬥爭的一部分。然而，即便這些可能性的確存在，它們轉變成現實的具體方式仍然是不清不楚。
一些外交官員表示，官方報紙頭版的大幅彩色照片圖片，尤其是那些反映日本駐北京大使館外抗議活動的照片，不光是高層默許這些示威遊行的證據，同時還表明，從某些方面而言，示威甚至是政府組織的。
這些外交官員指出，官方媒體中很少出現抗議的照片。一位外國外交官說，通過發佈這些照片，政府向中國人民傳達了這樣一個訊息，即參加示威是被允許的。為了遵守相關協議，這位外交官不願具名。
一名市政工作人員說，某次抗議活動當天，早上四點，他們這些平常負責社區安全的市政工作人員被上級召集起來，上了公交車，被帶到日本大使館外的抗議地點，中午還拿到了供應的盒飯。他們當天的職責是和警察一起維持治安。
隨着示威活動不斷升級，越來越多的跡象表明情況很可能失控。北京的幾個抗議者舉着標語，上面寫着“釣魚屬於中國，薄屬於人民。” 薄指的就是薄熙來，被罷黜的中國西部城市重慶市原市委書記。他已經培養起了一大批民粹主義擁護者，但卻在今年落馬，起因是他的妻子被控謀殺一位英國商業夥 伴。
日本大使館外某次抗議的一名旁觀者說，守在抗議人群周圍的便衣警察悄悄收走了這些標語。
大部分示威者都舉着中國國旗，分外顯眼的則是幾個印着前中國領導人毛澤東畫像的標語牌。來自南方城市深圳的一名抗議者在電視上大喊，“打倒共產主義！”
然而，抗議活動的結束並不意味着對日仇恨的終結。
在本月於北京舉行的一次會議上，中國外交政策專家對日本的強烈敵意震驚了西方學者。
首爾延世大學國際問題研究生院(Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies)助理教授約翰·德勒里(John DeLury)說，這些專家談到，應該利用“衝突”來給日本人上一課，因為日本人試圖攫取自古就屬於中國的領土，中國人絕不會接受這樣的行為。
中國駐東京大使館前外交官員任曉表示，中國的新領導層即將全面掌權，與此同時，日本明年的大選可能會產生一個立場保守的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)政府，以態度更加強硬的鷹派政客安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)為首。在這種情況下，緊張局勢的緩和看上去遙遙無期。
“我認為，中國新領導層做出讓步的可能性更小，”目前在上海復旦大學擔任國際政治學教授的任曉說，“可能會執掌日本的自民黨政府也一樣。這就是我對中日關係如此擔憂的原因。”
News Analysis
China Alters Its Strategy in Diplomatic Crisis With Japan
By JANE PERLEZ September 29, 2012
中国政府对日政策强中有变
报道 2012年09月29日
BEIJING — After allowing anti-Japanese demonstrations that threatened to spin out of control, China
has reined them in and turned instead to hard-edged diplomacy over
disputed islands in the East China Sea to lessen any potential damage
the conflict might have inflicted on the nation’s softening economy and a
delicate leadership transition.
北京——中国政府一度对可能失控的反日示威游行采取了默许态度，如今则对这些活动进行控制，转而在东海争议岛屿问题上展示强硬的外交姿态，以减轻这场冲突对本国的疲软经济和敏感的领导层换届造成的潜在危害。
With relations between the two
Asian powers at a low point, China decided to go ahead with a
scaled-back reception here on Thursday night to honor the 40th
anniversary of the resumption of their diplomatic ties on Sept. 29,
1972. A member of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, Jia Qinglin,
attended with several other Chinese officials.
周四晚，鉴于这两个亚洲大国的关系已经降至低点，中国决定举行一个降低了规格的招待会，用以庆祝中日两国于1972年9月29号恢复邦交关系40周年。中央政治局常务委员会委员贾庆林和其他几名中国官员出席了庆祝活动。
But Beijing sent a not-so-subtle
message to Tokyo by not granting clearance to the plane that would have
brought in an important Japanese guest, the chairman of Toyota. Other
Japanese attended the event, though, and at the United Nations in New
York, the two sides met in private and sparred in public.
然而，北京没有向载有重要日本客人丰田汽车集团(Tokyo)董事长的那架飞机颁发降落许可，借此向东京传达了一条并不那么含蓄的讯息。不过，另外一些日本人参加了招待会，中日双方代表也在位于纽约的联合国总部展开了私下会谈和公开争论。
Around the disputed islands in
the East China Sea, called the Diaoyu by the Chinese and the Senkaku by
the Japanese, a large flotilla of Chinese patrol boats was being
monitored Friday by about half of Japan’s fleet of coast guard cutters, the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported.
据日本报纸《朝日新闻》(Asahi Shimbun)报道，周五，日本出动了海上保安厅半数左右的巡逻艇，在东海的争议岛屿周围对为数众多的中国巡逻船进行密切监视。中国称这些争议岛屿为钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿，日本则称之为尖阁诸岛。
The protests in more than 80
cities, including in urban centers where Japanese car dealerships and
electronics plants were damaged, suggested that the Chinese leadership
approved the outpouring of nationalism in part as insulation against
criticism of the party itself during the transition of power that
formally is scheduled to take place at the 18th Communist Party
Congress, now set to begin on Nov. 8. But the protests threatened to
turn against the Chinese government itself, diplomats and analysts said.
中国有80多座城市爆发了反日游行，其中一些发生在市中心，一些在华日
本汽车专卖行和电子产品工厂遭到了破坏。这些抗议活动表明中国领导层默许了民族主义的发泄，部分是为了避免处于权力交接期的共产党本身受到攻击。按正规程
序，权力交接将在中共第十八届全国代表大会上进行，会议开始的日期目前已初定为11月8号
。但是，这些抗议活动有可能把矛头转向中国政府本身，外交人员和分析人士称。
Even though China has overtaken
Japan as the biggest economy in Asia, Beijing’s handling of the dispute,
precipitated by the Japanese government’s decision to buy three of the
islands from their private Japanese owners, highlighted the
interdependence of the Chinese and Japanese economies, and the
limitations on what the leadership could allow.
争端的起因是日本政府决定从日本的私人所有者手中购买三个争议岛屿。尽管中国已取代日本成为亚洲头号经济体，北京对此次争端的处理方式仍然凸显了中日经济的互相依赖，以及领导层对事态发展的容忍限度。
Notions of punishing Tokyo economically for buying the islands, whose status was left unclear after World War II,
are unrealistic, said Hu Shuli, editor in chief of Caixin Media and one
of China’s chief economic journalists. So many Chinese workers are
employed at Japanese-owned companies, she said, that any escalation of
tensions leading to a boycott of Japanese goods could lead to huge job
losses.
财新传媒总编辑、中国首屈一指的财经记者胡舒立说，针对日本购买这些自二战后就归属不明的争议岛屿的行为，实施经济惩罚的想法并不现实。她说，日资企业中有很多中国雇员，任何矛盾升级带来的抵制日货行动都会导致大规模的失业。
This would be disastrous in an already shaky Chinese economy, Ms. Hu wrote in the Chinese magazine Century Weekly.
对于业已步履蹒跚的中国经济而言，这可能带来灾难性的后果，胡舒立在中国杂志《新世纪周刊》中写道。
At a time when overall foreign
investment in China is shrinking, Japan’s investment in China rose by 16
percent last year, Ms. Hu noted. The Japan External Trade Organization
reported $12.6 billion of Japanese investment in China last year,
compared with $14.7 billion in the United States.
胡舒立指出，在外国对华投资整体缩水的情况下，去年的日本对华投资仍然上升了16%。根据日本贸易振兴机构(Japan External Trade Organization)的报告，去年日本对华投资为126亿美元，对美投资则为147亿美元。
Not just China, but all of Asia,
could face a serious economic downturn if Japanese investments in China
were threatened, said Piao Guangji, a researcher at the China Academy of
Social Sciences.
中国社会科学院研究员朴光嬉表示，如果日本的对华投资受到威胁，不仅是中国，全亚洲的经济都可能会受到严重打击。
Exactly how the anti-Japanese protests were organized, and by whom, remained murky.
反日抗议具体是怎么组织的，由谁组织的，到目前还是个谜。
A rough chronology showed that
immediately after the Japanese government announced it had bought the
islands, protests began in Beijing and other cities. The protests then
spread, reaching a peak on the anniversary of the Sept. 18, 1931, Mukden Incident, which led to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. After that, the protests were shut down.
一份粗略的时间表显示，在日本政府宣布已购买争议岛屿之后，北京和其他一些城市立刻爆发了反日抗议。接着，抗议蔓延到其他城市，并在1931年日本侵占东北三省的9.18事变纪念日当天达到高峰。在此之后，抗议活动遭到禁止。
It appeared that permission for
the weeklong protests had been discussed at very high levels, said one
foreign diplomat who had followed the events closely.
一位密切关注事态发展的外国外交官说，看起来，高层之前就已讨论决定对长达一周的抗议活动采取默许态度。
Analysts said the protests might
have been used as a weapon by one party faction against another as part
of the internal machinations over who would win positions on the
Standing Committee, but precisely how those possibilities played out, if
at all, was not clear.
分析人士称，抗议活动可能是共产党内某一派别用来对付另一派别的武器，是围绕政治局常委职位开展的内部阴谋斗争的一部分。然而，即便这些可能性的确存在，它们转变成现实的具体方式仍然是不清不楚。
Bold color photographs on the
front pages of state-run newspapers, particularly of the protests
outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, were evidence that senior
leaders approved of the demonstrations, and suggested that, in some
respects, they were even organized by the government, diplomats said.
一些外交官员表示，官方报纸头版的大幅彩色照片图片，尤其是那些反映日本驻北京大使馆外抗议活动的照片，不光是高层默许这些示威游行的证据，同时还表明，从某些方面而言，示威甚至是政府组织的。
Photographs of protests are
rarely seen in the state-run news media, they noted. By running them,
the government sent a message to the Chinese people that joining the
demonstrations was acceptable, said a foreign diplomat, who spoke on
condition of anonymity in keeping with protocol.
这些外交官员指出，官方媒体中很少出现抗议的照片。一位外国外交官说，通过发布这些照片，政府向中国人民传达了这样一个讯息，即参加示威是被允许的。为了遵守相关协议，这位外交官不愿具名。
Municipal workers in Beijing who
normally guard local neighborhoods were called by their superiors at 4
a.m. on the day of one of the protests, directed to board buses that
took them to the protest site outside the Japanese Embassy and provided
with box lunches, one of the workers said. Their job was to provide
security, alongside the police.
一名市政工作人员说，某次抗议活动当天，早上四点，他们这些平常负责社区安全的市政工作人员被上级召集起来，上了公交车，被带到日本大使馆外的抗议地点，中午还拿到了供应的盒饭。他们当天的职责是和警察一起维持治安。
As the demonstrations grew in
intensity, there were increasing signs that they might get out of
control. Several protesters in Beijing carried signs saying “Diaoyu
belongs to China, Bo belongs to the people.” That was a reference to Bo
Xilai, the disgraced former Communist Party boss of the western city of
Chongqing, who had developed a populist following before he fell from
power this year after his wife was accused of murdering a British
business associate.
随着示威活动不断升级，越来越多的迹象表明情况很可能失控。北京的几个
抗议者举着标语，上面写着“钓鱼属于中国，薄属于人民。”
薄指的就是薄熙来，被罢黜的中国西部城市重庆市原市委书记。他已经培养起了一大批民粹主义拥护者，但却在今年落马，起因是他的妻子被控谋杀一位英国商业伙
伴。
Those signs were quietly removed
from the hands of the protesters by plainclothes security men stationed
around the crowd, said a person who watched one of the protests outside
the Japanese Embassy.
日本大使馆外某次抗议的一名旁观者说，守在抗议人群周围的便衣警察悄悄收走了这些标语。
A few placards bearing portraits
of the late Chinese leader Mao Zedong stood out among the Chinese flags
carried by most of the demonstrators. A protester in the southern city
of Shenzhen was heard on television shouting, “Down with Communism!”
大部分示威者都举着中国国旗，分外显眼的则是几个印着前中国领导人毛泽东画像的标语牌。来自南方城市深圳的一名抗议者在电视上大喊，“打倒共产主义！”
The end of the protests, however, did not mean the end of the fury against Japan.
然而，抗议活动的结束并不意味着对日仇恨的终结。
At a meeting in Beijing this
month, Western academics were taken aback by the depth of hostility
toward Japan among Chinese foreign policy experts.
在本月于北京举行的一次会议上，中国外交政策专家对日本的强烈敌意震惊了西方学者。
There was talk of “conflict” to
teach Japan a lesson, said John DeLury, an assistant professor at Yonsei
University Graduate School of International Studies in Seoul, for
making what the Chinese see as an unacceptable grab of territory that
historically has belonged to them.
首尔延世大学国际问题研究生院(Yonsei University
Graduate School of International Studies)助理教授约翰·德勒里(John
DeLury)说，这些专家谈到，应该利用“冲突”来给日本人上一课，因为日本人试图攫取自古就属于中国的领土，中国人绝不会接受这样的行为。
With the new leadership in
Beijing set to assume full control soon, even as Japan may turn to a
conservative Liberal Democratic government under the more hawkish Shinzo
Abe in elections next year, a reduction in tensions looks remote, said
Ren Xiao, a former Chinese diplomat who served at the Chinese Embassy in
Tokyo.
中国驻东京大使馆前外交官员任晓表示，中国的新领导层即将全面掌权，与
此同时，日本明年的大选可能会产生一个立场保守的自民党(Liberal Democratic
Party)政府，以态度更加强硬的鹰派政客安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)为首。在这种情况下，紧张局势的缓和看上去遥遥无期。
“I think it will be less likely
for the new Chinese leadership to make concessions,” said Mr. Ren, now a
professor of international politics at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“The same goes for a possible Liberal Democratic Party government in
Japan. That’s why I am very worried about the Sino-Japanese
relationship.”
“我认为，中国新领导层做出让步的可能性更小，”目前在上海复旦大学担任国际政治学教授的任晓说，“可能会执掌日本的自民党政府也一样。这就是我对中日关系如此担忧的原因。”
Japan Auto Makers Count the Cost of China Spat
The
impact of Japan's territorial spat with China on Japanese auto makers
is only just becoming apparent. Nissan, Toyota and Honda will hope for
an early resolution.
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