2009年9月29日 星期二

鳩山谷垣

〔編譯鄭曉蘭/綜合報導〕日本近五十年來幾乎獨霸執政黨寶座的自民黨,在痛失執政權後遭逢創黨以來最大危機。為釐清敗選責任,自民黨二十八日選出現年六十四歲的谷垣禎一,接替前首相麻生太郎擔任新黨魁,期盼「新人新氣象」能夠挽回民心。

自民黨選出新總裁谷垣禎一

谷垣向來予人「沉穩踏實」之感,媒體形容谷垣猶如「體育秀才」,日後會與被稱為「理科外星人」的現任首相鳩山由紀夫擦出何種火花,令人期待。

谷垣禎一是在前首相小泉純一郎時代獲得重用,此後陸續入閣擔任財務相、國交相等,並以溫和沉穩的表現廣獲民心。同時,谷垣也一度與麻生太郎、福田康夫及安倍晉三,並列為小泉熱門接班人「麻垣康三」,後於二○○六年首度角逐黨魁選舉。

出身東大律師 熱中爬山和單車

谷 垣擁有東大法學系學歷及律師執照,外界視他為「秀才」,他本人卻說自己只是個平凡人。原來谷垣重考考上東大後,因為沉迷登山,曾與山友長達一百五十天徜徉 山間,導致大學念了八年才畢業。谷垣挑戰司法官考試同樣數度落榜,在這段期間邊洗盤子打零工,耗費十年才如願考取律師執照。當上眾議員後,谷垣的興趣變成 騎上單車萬里長征,因此被媒體稱為「體育秀才」。谷垣在黨魁記者會上如此形容自己,「我的優點是『很有耐力』,缺點是『太有耐力』。」

三年前借錢參選黨魁 迄今未還清

儘 管黨內也有人批判,父親為前文部大臣的谷垣是「世襲」,但相較於出身政治名門、存款高達台幣四億六千萬,在東京豪宅區田園調布坐擁豪宅的鳩山,谷垣可謂小 巫見大巫。谷垣坦承,三年前參與黨魁競選時,以自宅擔保借貸的款項,「至今還沒辦法完全還清」。這位頂著「精英」頭銜的平凡人,日後如何與不按牌理出牌的 「外星人」鳩山抗衡,備受外界關注。

2009年9月25日 星期五

Japan Seems Reluctant as Airline Seeks a Bailout

Japan Seems Reluctant as Airline Seeks a Bailout

September 25, 2009, 2:59 am

Japan Airlines pleaded on Thursday for a government bailout, but the country’s new transport minister withheld support on concerns that the carrier’s cost-cutting plans would not go far enough.

Reuters reported that the request by the chief executive of Japan Airlines, Haruka Nishimatsu, for a capital injection from the government came as the carrier’s shares tumbled 16 percent to a record, hit by news reports that lenders might seek to break up the company and that it had asked for a bailout.

Japan Airlines, weighed down by $15 billion of debt and headed for its second consecutive annual loss, is being wooed by Delta Air Lines and a rival group led by American Airlines, which are offering capital in return for closer business ties.

Japan Airlines has been scrambling to put together a restructuring plan to submit to the government this month, a condition of a state guarantee on a billion-dollar loan earlier this year.

The likelihood of further state support has been thrown into doubt by a change in government in August that brought the Democratic Party to power, ending the rule of the Liberal Democratic Party, which had supported state help for the airline.

The transport minister, Seiji Maehara, met with Mr. Nishimatsu on Thursday. He reiterated that he did not want the airline to go bankrupt but said he was not ready to approve a request for the state to prop up the carrier by buying shares.

Mr. Maehara said he wanted to finish restructuring plans by the end of October.

Japan Airlines is seeking about $2.7 billion through a mixture of equity and debt to meet its financing needs through March. Bankers have said they will not lend more to the company unless there is deeper state involvement, either through loan guarantees or a capital increase.

2009年9月22日 星期二

追加預算調整/ 反對郵政民營化人士

本新政府週五強調﹐本屆政府預算支出方面的側重點與前一屆政府不同。目前日本財務大臣已要求所有內閣官員重新評估前任政府批准的13.93萬億日圓追加預算﹐並在10月2日前就哪些支出可以取消提出建議。

日本財務大臣藤井裕久(Hirohisa Fujii)在內閣會議結束後召開的新聞發佈會上表示﹐政府已決定取消追加預算中浪費資金的項目﹐並重新決定這些資金的用途。

目前尚不清楚此次調整可以為日本政府節省多少資金。藤井裕久表示﹐他個人認為政府可以因此節省數萬億日圓。

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英國金融時報報導,日本金融兼郵政大臣龜井靜香透露,新政府將考慮停止日本郵政公社及其姊妹公司日本郵政保險公司的首次公開發行(IPO),引發外界質疑新政府的改革能力。

日本郵政公社是全世界存款最多的銀行,小泉純一郎2001至2006年擔任首相期間,曾力排眾議,把這家138歲的老銀行民營化,希望出售郵政公社,分割為四家獨立民間企業,當時預計最快2010年掛牌上市。

但龜井靜香表示,新政府今年將推出法案,「凍結郵政集團各部門出售股份的計畫」。

此舉將使日本郵政公社股票公開發行受阻。郵政公社擁有224兆日圓(2.254兆美元)存款,日本郵政保險公司預定2017年前完全民營化。

民主黨阻止郵政民營化,任命龜井靜香為金融兼郵政大臣,已引發外界質疑,擔心鳩山新政府將大開倒車,回到過去亟待結構性改革的情況。

郵政公社和保險公司是日本公債最大持有人,過去因遭日本政府動用為公共工程建設資金,造成政府支出浪費,因此小泉任內大力推動兩者上市,以活絡資金運用,並改革迂腐的金融和保險部門。

日本郵政民營化一旦喊卡,貨運業者日本運通公司損失不小。該公司耗資逾1.2億美元,和郵政公社合資成立包裹遞送公司多時,卻始終未獲營運許可,新政府的提案恐讓合作案永無生效之日。日本運通估計,合資案每延遲一個月,該公司就損失多達900萬美元的支出。

反對郵政民營化人士認為,偏遠鄉村地區可能因此喪失郵政服務,外資企業也可能忽略金融和郵政顧客的需求,過度影響決策。

龜井靜香向來大力反對小泉的郵政民營化政策,2005年甚至因此退出自民黨,成立國民新黨。龜井因主張應援助有融資問題的中小企業,引發外界擔憂民主黨將 對民營企業採取社會主義路線,但他最引人爭議的一點,是建議新政府應暫停貸款清償機制,以解決中小企業信貸緊縮的困境。

2009年9月21日 星期一

Japan Catches Thrift Bug

Once Slave to Luxury, Japan Catches Thrift Bug


Published: September 20, 2009

TOKYO — Not long ago, many Japanese bought so many $100 melons and $1,000 handbags that this was the only country in the world where luxury products were considered mass market.

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A Seiyu outlet in Akabane. The chain, part of Wal-Mart Stores, and other discounters across Japan are reporting rising revenue.

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Even through the economic stagnation of Japan’s so-called lost decade, which began in the early 1990s, Japanese consumers sustained that reputation. But this recession has done something that earlier declines could not: turned the Japanese into Wal-Mart shoppers.

In seven years operating in Japan, through a subsidiary called Seiyu, Wal-Mart Stores has never turned a profit. But sales have risen every month since November, and this year, the retailer expects to make a profit.

That is an understatement. Across the board, discount retailers are reporting increases in revenue — while just about everyone else is experiencing declines, in some cases, by double digits.

As a result, the luxury boutiques, once almighty here, are reeling.

Sales at LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, makers of what has long been Japan’s favorite handbag, plunged 20 percent in the first six months of 2009. In December, as the global economic crisis unfolded, Louis Vuitton canceled plans for what would have been a fancy new Tokyo store.

In the 1970s and ’80s, and even as the economy limped through the ’90s, a wide group of consumers spent generously on Louis Vuitton bags and Hermès scarves — even at the expense of holidays, travel and, sometimes, meals and rent.

Now, the Japanese luxury market, worth $15 billion to $20 billion, has been among the hardest hit by the global economic crisis, according to a report by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Retail analysts, economists and consumers all say that the change could be a permanent one. A new generation of Japanese fashionistas does not even aspire to luxury brands; they are happy to mix and match treasures found in a flurry of secondhand clothing stores that have sprung up across Japan.

“I’m not drawn to Louis Vuitton at all,” said Izumi Hiranuma, 19.

“People used to feel they needed a Louis Vuitton to fit in,” she said. “But younger girls don’t think like that anymore.”

In the new environment, cheap is chic, whatever the product.

In supermarket aisles, sales of lowly common vegetables — like bean sprouts, onions and local mushrooms — are up. (Bean sprouts, which sell for as little as 25 cents a bag, are a particularly good substitute for cabbage, which can go for about $4 a head.)

And instead of melons, Japanese shoppers are buying cheap bananas, pushing imports up to records.

“I’ve cut down on fruit since last year, because of the cost,” said Maki Kudo, 36, a homemaker shopping at a Keikyu supermarket in central Tokyo. “Instead of brands, I now look much more at cost.”

Thrift is being expressed even in unlikely measures like umbrella sales, which have spiked as more Japanese opt to brave rainy weather on foot rather than hail a taxi, according to a survey by the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

In 2008, average household spending fell a record 69,509 yen, or $762, to 3.5 million yen, or $38,475, from a year earlier, and is expected to fall again this year, said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life.

Underlying Japan’s accelerating frugality is a “deflationary gap” of 40 trillion yen in the Japanese economy, a situation where total demand falls short of what an economy produces. When this happens, companies cut prices, but since they still do not make money, they have to lay off workers. Fewer workers mean still less demand, creating a vicious circle, and prices fall further.

The dismal economy encourages thrift, too. Unemployment is at a record high of 5.7 percent, compared with 9.7 percent in the United States. A troubled government pension system, as well as ballooning government debt, has driven a widespread fear of the future, prompting people to save, not spend.

The Democratic Party, which rode a wave of discontent over the economy to electoral victory last month, has pledged to increase household incomes through tax breaks and generous subsidies for families with children. But economists here worry that the deflationary cycle could prove hard to break as competitive price-cutting rages.

A heated price war has erupted, for instance, in the already cut-rate category of “imitation” beers, a poor man’s brew made with soy or pea protein instead of barley and hops.

In July, Seven & I Holdings Company, which runs the 7-Eleven chain, introduced a new line of imitation beer for $1.35 a can; the same month, the Aeon shopping center brought out its own beer beverage for about $1.09. The Daiei supermarket chain then lowered prices on its beer to less than a dollar.

U.G. — the sibling brand of Uniqlo, the global clothing retailer known for its low-cost fleeces and T-shirts — started a jeans war when it introduced pants for 990 yen this year. Aeon soon followed suit with jeans selling for 880 yen.

Seiyu, the wholly owned Wal-Mart subsidiary, says it plans to sell similarly priced jeans this year.

Of course, for some retailers the circle is more virtuous than vicious.

Thrift has propelled Hanjiro, a secondhand clothing store chain popular among young Japanese, to 19 stores, from just one store in 1992. When Hanjiro opened a new store in Saitama, which borders Tokyo, in April, about 1,000 eager young fans lined up for a door-buster 290-yen T-shirt special. Of course, frugality is good for Wal-Mart, which posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings last month. Japanese consumers are snapping up Seiyu’s $6 bottles of wine — sourced through Wal-Mart’s international network — as well as $86 suits and $87 bicycles.

In fact, Seiyu has ignited a price war of its own, with its “bento” lunch-in-a-box of rice and grilled salmon for 298 yen. Abandoning a custom here for supermarkets to make their bento boxes on site, Seiyu cut costs by assembling the lunches at a centralized factory.

Seiyu bet that Japan’s frugal consumers would not care about the change, as long as the bentos were cheap. Seiyu was right; the bentos have set off a line of copycat supermarket bentos.

“Price is No. 1 in my mind,” said Chie Kawano, an elderly shopper at Seiyu’s Akabane store in northern Tokyo, a bento box in her basket. “I don’t need anything fancy.”

2009年9月20日 星期日

クレヨンしんちゃん

8日前から連絡がとれなくなっている人気漫画「クレヨンしんちゃん」の作者が向かったとみられる群馬県の荒船山のがけの下で、男性の遺体が見つかりました。警察は20日遺体を引き上げて、身元の確認を進めることにしています。

蠟筆小新」在日本被定位為「成年漫畫」,因此漫畫版早期有許多性暗示的描述,動畫版才修正為適合閤家欣賞的尺度。在漫畫分類不如日本精細的台灣,「蠟筆小新」卻被包裝成 ...
蠟筆小新作者 證實身亡

〔日本特約撰述曹姮/東京傳真〕「蠟筆小新」作者臼井儀人確定罹難,日本警方昨晚證實,在荒船山找到的男屍就是臼井儀人。

臼井儀人十一日上午離家去登山,直到隔日早上仍然沒有回家,他的妻子十二日向警方報案協尋,十九日上午有登山客向警方報案,表示在群馬、長野縣境的荒船山「艫岩」下方看到一具男性屍體。

警方趕到現場,發現屍體全身骨折,面部嚴重損傷,似乎已死亡多日,身上殘破的衣服與臼井離家時服裝相似,但因掉落的現場傾斜度達六十度,無法在當天搜救遺體。

昨天(二十日)上午警方開始搜尋遺體,下午一點左右,機動隊隊員抵達現場,用起重機將屍體搬運到艫岩上方,再用直升機運到下仁田警察署,臼井的家人趕赴確認,但因死者的面部已遭損壞無法辨認,最後警方由齒型紀錄確認他就是失蹤九天的漫畫家臼井儀人。

根據警方的調查,臼井應該是從荒船山斷崖「艫岩」上方的瞭望台上墜落,遺體掉落在艫岩下方約一百公尺處,離遺體五十公尺遠的坡面上,留有一個茶色的背包,但是沒有遺書。

目前警方認為他應該是失足掉落,但有登山客表示,雖然瞭望台沒有欄杆,但是一般人如果不是刻意走到崖邊向下探頭,應該不太可能摔落到那個地方,也很少人會在那裡失足,網路有人流傳臼井可能因為宗教問題而想不開,目前他的死因還是一個謎。

多年來一直連載「蠟筆小新」的「雙葉社」表示,已經拿到十二月號的連載內容,之後該如何處理還無法決定;播出「蠟筆小新」卡通的朝日電視台也表示,今後該如何處理將與有關人員商討後決定。

今年五十一歲的臼井儀人,本名臼井義人,住在埼玉縣春日部市,平常很喜歡一個人去爬山,他的成名作「蠟筆小新」讓他成為家喻戶曉的人氣漫畫家,聽到他可能罹難的消息之後,全日本的小新迷都在為他祈禱,沒想到還是傳出大家最不希望見到的結果。



クレヨン 2 [(フランス) crayon]

  • パラフィンに顔料をまぜ、蝋(ろう)などで固めて棒状にした絵の具。クレオン。
  • コンテ


  • ◆アクセント : クレヨン 2


2009年9月13日 星期日

Japan’s Victors Warily Prepare for Power


By MARTIN FACKLER
Published: September 12, 2009
TOKYO — As the newly elected Democratic Party works to assemble what will be only the second government in Japan’s postwar history not to be led by the Liberal Democratic Party, it is treading carefully to avoid infighting that could split the ideologically diverse party or drive a wedge between it and its coalition allies.
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Yukio Hatoyama, left, is expected to be Japan’s next prime minister as leader of the Democrats.
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Since smashing the Liberal Democrats’ nearly uninterrupted half-century monopoly on power two weeks ago, the center-left Democrats and their leader, Yukio Hatoyama, 62, have hurried to fill top posts in the party and his incoming cabinet and to cobble together a coalition with other parties before their government’s formal accession to power on Sept. 16.
The party is working under unrelenting scrutiny from the news media and from Japanese citizens still affected by the bitter aftertaste of their only previous experience with non-Liberal Democratic rule since 1955. That government, which took power in 1993, lasted less than a year before collapsing amid bickering and defections.
Nightly news broadcasts, which are dominated by detailed coverage of the political maneuverings within the newly formed coalition, frequently feature veterans of the earlier failed government who offer lessons from their brief, rocky time in power.
While there have been no major bumps so far, warning signs are already appearing.
On Wednesday, when Mr. Hatoyama and the heads of two smaller anti-laissez-faire parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People’s New Party, agreed to form a coalition government, they left unresolved disagreements over the status of 50,000 American service members in Japan. Mr. Hatoyama has spoken in vague terms of re-examining the American military bases, while still trying to remain close to Washington, but the leftist Social Democrats want the bases removed.
There have also been signs of division in the Democratic Party since Mr. Hatoyama gave a top party position to one of the party’s most powerful men, Ichiro Ozawa, in what analysts say was an attempt to keep his loyalty. But in doing so, Mr. Hatoyama raised concerns by other Democrats that the party was embracing a shadowy kingmaker whose money-oriented political style closely resembled that of the Liberal Democrats they defeated.
Those critics fear that Mr. Ozawa, 67, will compete with Mr. Hatoyama for control of the party; Mr. Ozawa was a member of the 1993-1994 government, and political analysts have blamed his clashes with other coalition members for contributing to its demise. On Thursday, many Democrats lobbied to have Seiji Maehara, a young proponent of clean politics, included in the new cabinet to help offset Mr. Ozawa’s influence.
Mr. Hatoyama has tried to dispel concerns that he is creating competing centers of power.
“This will not create a dual power structure,” Mr. Hatoyama, the presumptive next prime minister, told reporters. He added that policy would be set by his cabinet and not the party.
Still, the barest hints of fissures within the party have made news in a nation keen to see if the Democrats can pull off the daunting task of essentially dragging the country into a true multiparty system.
The 1993-94 government, which included eight small parties and groups and was first led by Morihiro Hosokawa as prime minister, lasted only 11 months. Its quick collapse drove disappointed Japanese voters back into the arms of the Liberal Democrats, where they stayed until the election.
While there are many differences between now and 1993 — the biggest being the fact that a single, large party, the Democratic Party, has beaten the Liberal Democrats — the mistakes of that earlier government still cast a shadow, according to veterans of that coalition.
“It took 16 years to get this second chance,” Mr. Hosokawa, who retired from politics in 1998, said in an interview. “Lack of cohesiveness has always plagued efforts to build a second big political party.”
Mr. Hosokawa said the Democrats’ main weak point might be their broad manifesto of campaign promises, which would be hard to achieve quickly enough to satisfy Japan’s recession-weary voters. The party is trying to reinvigorate Japan’s sclerotic system of government by empowering elected politicians and consumers over the bureaucracy and industry, and to blunt the pain from globalization with a stronger social safety net.
Instead, Mr. Hosokawa said, focusing on a few high-profile policies would make it easier to keep the party on the same track and offer voters results.
“They need a single flag to stand under,” he said.
Adding to the difficulty will be the fact that Mr. Hatoyama heads a party that is broad and often hazy in its identity.
The party was formed in 1998 as a motley grouping of former Socialists and defectors from the conservative Liberal Democratic Party. Since then, it has tried to forge a unique culture and identity, with mixed success.
By finally winning power, the party has been robbed of its main source of unity, say political analysts and former politicians. The glue that held the Democrats together has been a shared desire to end the Liberal Democrats’ rule.
“The Democrats are like wet, unformed concrete, which still lacks a mold,” said Atsuo Ito, an independent political analyst who wrote a book on the party. “Just holding power may be enough to keep the party together at first, but eventually the party will need shared beliefs to keep from flying apart.”

不二家牛奶妹 日本黑道「搶」手貨

〔編譯鄭曉蘭/綜合報導〕水汪汪的大眼睛、蝴蝶結紮起的兩側髮束,還有金字招牌的俏皮吐舌鬼臉……,日本著名糕點業者「不二家」的駐店人偶「牛奶妹」(Peko)不但家喻戶曉,如今更成為黑道的「搶」手貨!日本今年已傳出11起擺放店門口的牛奶妹遭竊或遭搶案件,月初落網的黑道幹部便供稱「看準牛奶妹的拍賣價值,才會動手行搶。」部分商家為免「招牌店花」遭綁,更祭出防盜措施,只怕一不小心又讓牛奶妹落入歹徒手中。
日本和歌山市警方本月1日逮捕兩名涉嫌向大阪某二手商店兜售「牛奶妹」的山口組黑幫份子。其中一名嫌犯涉嫌於今年2月,在光天化日之下從和歌山市店家,一把抱起高約110公分、重約10公斤的牛奶妹人偶,驅車逃離現場。上述大阪二手商店已陸續賣出數尊「被綁」的牛奶妹,每尊售價約台幣7萬2千元。
不二家的駐店人偶牛奶妹為非賣品,每家分店僅發出一尊,店家歇業或終止合作就會加以回收。由於物以稀為貴,牛奶妹也成為收藏家夢寐以求的搶手貨。此外,牛奶妹問世以來,陪伴日本民眾走過約60個年頭,不同年代所製造的各種設計款牛奶妹,也往往能夠串聯起讓人懷念的歷史記憶。橫濱的中古玩具業者「昭和堂」便指出,牛奶妹的魅力就在於「可愛」、「造型多變」及「歷史」。
報導指出,牛奶妹的中古市場售價約介於台幣5至7萬元,遠高於其他駐店人偶的約台幣3千6百元,之前還曾有牛奶妹創下一尊約台幣36萬元的交易天價。
據統計,日本平均每年都會發生10幾起牛奶妹失竊案件。和歌山市開店20年來曾被偷過3次的某分店,現在乾脆將人偶綁在商品架上。該店老闆表示:「感覺就像是自己女兒被綁架一樣,」他說,到現在還是會掛心前3尊失竊的牛奶妹到底流落何方。

2009年9月11日 星期五

日製火箭 首度將補給船送進太空

日製火箭 首度將補給船送進太空

  • 中國時報 2009-09-12

  • 【黃菁菁/東京十一日電】

 日本十一日自鹿兒島縣的種子島太空中心,成功發射「H2B」一號國產火箭,將首艘日本國產無人太空運輸補給船「HTV」送進太空。(見圖,法新 社)HTV將取代一○年退役的美國太空梭,提供國際太空站物資補給,由於HTV具有運送大型實驗裝置的能力,因此也受到國際的矚目。

 塔載HTV補給船的H2B一號火箭,於十一日凌晨二時一分,自種子島太空中心升空,HTV於十五分鐘後,在三百公里的高空成功脫離火箭進入軌道,預定十八日抵達國際太空站。

 HTV呈圓筒型,全長約十公尺,直徑約四.四公尺,最多可裝載六噸的物資,這次則裝載了食品、日用品及船外實驗裝置等四.五噸的物資,將物資送進國際太空站後,再裝載太空站的廢棄物離開。

 H2B是由日本宇宙機構和三菱重空共同研發的日本最大型國產火箭,全長五十六公尺,重五百卅噸。日本研究火箭發射技術已經超過五十年,這次是日本制訂太空基本計畫後首度發射火箭,H2B的成功發射為日本太空科技產業帶來很大的鼓舞。

 日本宇宙機構目前計畫至二○一五年為止,每年發射一台HTV到國際太空站。

2009年9月4日 星期五

Japan PM-elect's pick of powerful ally raises worry

Japan PM-elect's pick of powerful ally raises worry

Fri Sep 4, 2009 7:46am EDT

By Isabel Reynolds

TOKYO (Reuters) - The choice of a powerful former leader of Japan's new ruling party for a key role raised concerns on Friday that incoming Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has created a rival power center that will muddle policymaking.

Veteran lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa will assume the post of secretary-general of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), just months after a fundraising furor for him to resign.

Ozawa was the DPJ's chief campaign strategist and helped mastermind its historic defeat of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in an election for parliament's lower house last Sunday.

Since Ozawa can take much of the credit for the victory, this will boost his clout within the party anyway, but his appointment to the No. 2 position makes it all the more likely that he will try to pull strings from behind the scenes, as he did the only other time the LDP was ousted.

"The question is to what extent Ozawa can restrain himself," said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Nihon University in Tokyo.

"There may be times when he can't and speaks out on policies at news conferences or tries to decide things without going through the proper decision-making process."

Katsuya Okada, the current secretary-general, dismissed concerns about a dual party structure.

"The party leader and Mr. Ozawa agreed that policy-making would be unified and that the secretary-general would not interfere," he said in an interview on Friday.

Parliament will formally vote Hatoyama in as prime minister on September 16. Hatoyama, who has emphasized that he will choose its cabinet members himself, said on Friday he wanted to complete the cabinet line-up by the end of September 16.

Ozawa, 67, stepped down as party leader in May after his close aide was charged with accepting illegal donations. The scandal is likely to come back into focus when the aide's trial gets under way in the coming months.

Although the appointment had been expected, newspapers speculated that Ozawa would act as the power behind the throne and some voters were concerned.

"I am a bit worried," said 41-year-old banker Shintaro Yamaoka. "Ozawa has power and numbers in the party. I wonder if Hatoyama will be able to carry out his own intentions."

PM PICKS TOP SPOKESMAN

Broadcaster NHK said on Friday that Hatoyama had picked close ally Hirofumi Hirano for chief cabinet secretary, a position that Hatoyama said would focus on parliamentary affairs in his new government.

But Hatoyama said he would not be able to make decisions on his cabinet at least until talks on a coalition agreement with two small parties are over, which is expected as early as early next week.

"I have of course some ideas in mind, but we are not yet at the stage to announce them," Hatoyama told reporters.

Hatoyama has also said he wants two other former party leaders, Okada and Naoto Kan, to take top portfolios.

Okada and Kan have been tipped as candidates for finance minister, a vital post as Japan struggles out of its worst recession since World War Two.

The head of a new National Strategy Bureau, likely to be deeply involved in drawing up the budget and setting policy priorities, will also be a key appointment.

Investors have expressed concern that the new government will need to increase already high borrowing to fund its election promises and the appointments will be key to identifying the balance between social spending and reining in the fiscal deficit.

"The biggest concern -- even bigger than who will be the new finance minister -- is how they will secure funding for all their promised programs," said Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst, Mizuho Securities.

A third name often floated for the finance post is Hirohisa Fujii, who served as finance minister in an anti-LDP coalition from 1993-1994.

Hatoyama's choice for foreign minister will be closely watched after concerns the Democratic Party's policy of building a more independent stance from the United States could damage ties with Tokyo's biggest security ally.

Negotiations continued on Friday on a coalition agreement with the two tiny parties which could help make up for the Democrats' lack of a majority in the less powerful upper house of parliament but whose policies are markedly different.

Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the Social Democratic Party, said on Thursday the alliance was very likely to go ahead, but media said the talks would run into next week.

(Additional reporting by Chisa Fujioka, Colin Parrott, Linda Sieg, Yoko Nishikawa, and Elaine Lies; Editing by Alex Richardson)

The electorate has thrown out not just a party but a whole system

Japan's election

The vote that changed Japan

Sep 3rd 2009
From The Economist print edition

The electorate has thrown out not just a party but a whole system


Illustration by Jon Berkeley

JAPAN is a decent, consensual and egalitarian country. Much of it is still prosperous, despite a dismal period for the economy. The beliefs of its two main political parties are often hard to tell apart. Both their leaders are grandsons of (rival) prime ministers. There were no loud celebrations when the results of the general election were announced on August 30th. It is tempting therefore to write it off as no earth-shattering event.

That would be a mistake. The vote, in which the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) broke the half-century lock of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on power, marked the overdue destruction of Japan’s post-war political system. The question is what will now take its place.

System change

There are three reasons to believe that this vote marks a big change. The first is the scale of the DPJ’s victory. When the LDP lost once before, in 1993, it remained easily the biggest party in the Diet, and within 11 months was back in power. Today, the LDP is devastated. It keeps just 119 out of 480 seats in the lower house of the Diet, down from 300. The DPJ has 308.

Second, the rejection of the LDP is the culmination of deep changes in Japan’s political culture. The LDP, a pro-American, pro-business consequence of the cold war, was undermined by two decades in which consumer interests and non-profit groups slowly mounted a challenge to its paternalism. Electoral reform in the mid-1990s introduced single-member districts, helping to create an opposition that could take on the LDP.

Third, by overthrowing the LDP, Japan’s voters have turfed out not just a party, but a whole system. After the LDP’s creation in 1955, Japan’s “iron triangle” of party, bureaucrats and business promoted breakneck growth, and distributed its fruits equitably: cheap finance for big business, contracts for construction companies, jobs for the masses, subsidies for farmers and re-election for the LDP machine.

But corruption flourished, as tax money went to the highest bidders. Growth slowed from the 1980s, and the system was too inflexible to adjust. Voters grew more demanding. Roads, dams and temporary, low-paid jobs were no longer enough. People wanted careers. They wanted doctors, nursing homes and decent schools that would keep young families from moving to the big cities, leaving only the old behind (see article). And they wanted confidence that the government would still be solvent when they drew down their pensions—not a sure bet in a country with a national debt approaching 200% of GDP.

Successive LDP administrations failed to respond to these demands because the government was often the weakest of the three sides of the triangle. Ministers’ best intentions were undermined by bureaucrats or party barons with their own networks of power. Hence the voters’ rejection of the old system in favour of something unfamiliar in Japan: an open and accountable government.

The huge task of creating it falls to Yukio Hatoyama, whom the Diet will appoint as prime minister on September 16th. It is not clear whether he, or his party, is up to the job; for alarmingly little is known—even by the voters—about the people who have taken power in the world’s second-biggest economy.

In opposition the DPJ tapped into the powerful, rather Nordic, vision of their society that many Japanese people cling to and fear they are losing. Accordingly, it rejected the free-market version of change championed by Junichiro Koizumi, a reforming LDP prime minister. This left-leaning, pro-union bias explains the party’s silence on liberalisation and deregulation of medical and other services that would boost productivity and help create the demand and jobs that Japan badly needs. The party has also made mild anti-American noises about military bases and the Japanese fleet. A market economy might be just about acceptable to the party, but an American market society, however defined, is not.

To Western ears, some of this sounds worrying. Yet the DPJ may be less frightening in office than in prospect. It has already begun to temper its foreign-policy rhetoric to calm American nerves. And its big economic idea, radical by Japan’s standards, is broadly welcome. Where the LDP looked after producers’ interests, the DPJ says it will put consumers first. It also says it will steer the economy away from export-led growth towards domestic demand. These assurances, coupled with a stronger social safety net and employment provisions (see article), may help lift some of the deflationary fog that has lain heavy over Japan for so long.

Bureaucrats and the budget

But all this depends on Mr Hatoyama’s first task: redesigning government. Here he starts with an advantage. Unlike the LDP, the DPJ government will not have to fight off a parallel party power structure when it makes policy. The cabinet will therefore be more powerful, and more accountable.

The test will be taking on the bureaucracy. Mr Hatoyama will have to strike a delicate balance. On the one hand the DPJ demands accountability, and promises to break bureaucrats’ backs to get it. On the other, it needs to harness bureaucrats’ talents if it is to formulate and carry out sound policy, particularly since so many new DPJ politicians are wet behind the ears.

How Mr Hatoyama both motivates bureaucrats and punishes them when they step out of line will make or break the DPJ. The crucial battle comes between now and December, in drawing up the budget for the 2010 fiscal year. Ministries have already submitted their spending plans, including pork for favoured groups, hoping for the usual lack of political oversight. The DPJ promises to rebuild the budget-making process from scratch, going through programmes line by line. That, too, is a chance for the new government to show that it is not as profligate as its opponents have claimed.

Japan has had other opportunities for reform, and has failed to take them. Mr Hatoyama, with no favours to return, has a chance both to revolutionise how Japan is governed and to revitalise the economy. He will need judgment for the first, and imagination for the second. Wish him plenty of both.




2009年9月1日 星期二

JAPAN'S CONTINUITY WE CAN BELIEVE IN


日本并未衰落
FT专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼:人们常拿日本“失落的十年”
来警告西方。但日本过去20多年的境遇,决不像许多人描述的那么悲惨。与其说日本提供了一个教训,不如说它在应对长期逆境方面树立了一个榜样。

去年,当这场大衰退开始之际,人们常常把日本的遭遇,作为给西方的一个可怕警告。他们说,如果美国和欧盟(EU)未能采取正确的政策,或许也会遭遇日本式“失落的十年”,其后则是多年的增长疲弱。

如今,当日本人在上周日的选举中结束了自民党(LDP) 50多年的统治,把民主党(DPJ)送上台时,西方又出现了一种新的说法:此次选举是一场政治革命,是日本结束多年停滞局面的重大机会。

然而,这两种说法都是错误的。民主党不太可能大幅改变现状。他们也不应该这样做。因为日本过去20多年来的境遇,决不像许多西方人描述得那么悲惨。


诚然,自1990年日本资产价格泡沫破灭以来,该国经济增长缓慢,股市大幅下跌,国家债务在GDP中所占比例攀升至可怕的水平。但是,尽管面临这些 困难,日本仍然是一个理智、稳定、繁荣和令人激动的国家。就政治、文化、甚至经济而言,与其说日本提供了一个教训,不如说它在如何应对长期逆境方面树立了 一个令人鼓舞的榜样。

令许多局外人感到困惑的是,在经济陷入相对停滞的多年时间里,日本人始终选择由自民党执政。少数人士甚至把这作为日本不够民主的证据。但日本乐于做 出尝试和改变。它曾选择个性张扬的自民党成员小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)担任首相,后者在2001年至2006年间,推动日本走向了更高程度的自由市场化。如今,它转而选择了不那么迷恋美国模式的鸠山由纪夫 (Yukio Hatoyama)和民主党。

不过,日本始终是在明确界定的限度内寻求改变。欧洲人和美国人担心,严重的经济衰退可能会助长政治极端主义——考虑到美国出现的歇斯底里的政治论 调,以及欧洲极右翼和极左翼政党所获得的更多选票,这种担心并非没有道理。但在将近20年的逆境中,日本人却从未与政治极端主义有染。

这可能是因为他们在应对经济困难方面,比外国人有时承认的要强得多。例如,《经济学人》(Economist)杂志有时会抱怨日本“让人失望的能力 惊人”。确实,外国投资者会发现, 过去20年里日本股市尤其令人失望;日经指数目前仅略高于10500点,而泡沫鼎盛时期曾达到过39000点的峰值。日本人还曾因不愿更冷酷地处理“僵尸 ”公司、执著于“终生雇用”等过时传统而受到外人的诟病。

但是缓冲经济衰退最严重社会影响的努力收到了成效。上周新闻媒体上出现了令人震惊的标题,宣称全球衰退导致日本失业率创下新高——5.7%。但与美国及欧元地区的9.4%相比,这已经算是相当好的表现。官方的数字背后,或许存在许多隐藏的失业数据——但西方社会同样如此。

日本决心保住就业岗位,这使得其劳动力市场不那么“有弹性”,也让经济付出了代价——但这种代价并非不可承受。学者们发表“日本将成为全球第一强国 ”的惊人预测的日子早已一去不返。但在经历了20年的所谓停滞之后,日本依然排名第二——是全球第二大经济体。日本的大型企业依然在制造世界一流的产品。 例如,丰田在研发普锐斯(Prius)等混合动力汽车方面,就走在了世界的前列。

When the great recession began last year, the fate of Japan was often held up as an awful warning to the west. If the US and the European Union failed to adopt the right policies, it was said, they too might suffer a Japanese-style “lost decade”, followed by years of feeble growth.

Now that the Japanese have used Sunday's election to elect the Democratic party – breaking with more than 50 years of rule by the Liberal Democratic party – a new western narrative is taking hold. This is a political revolution; it is Japan's big chance to break with the years of stagnation.

But both these stories are wrong. The Democrats are unlikely to shake things up hugely. Nor should they. For the story of Japan over the past 20 years is by no means as dismal as much western commentary would have it.

It is true that, since its asset-price bubble burst in 1990, the country's economy has grown slowly, the stock market has slumped and national debt has risen to awesome proportions. But, despite these trials, it has remained a sane, stable, prosperous and exciting country. Politically, culturally and even economically, it offers not so much a warning as an inspiring example of how to deal with a long period of adversity.

The fact that, throughout the years of relative stagnation, the Japanese kept electing the LDP puzzled many outsiders. A few even saw it as evidence that Japan is somehow less than democratic. But it was willing to try and change. The country gave a mandate to Junichiro Koizumi, the flamboyant LDP prime minister, who pushed Japan in a more free-market direction from 2001 to 2006. Now it has turned to Yukio Hatoyama and the Democrats, who are less enamoured of the American model.

However, Japan has always gone for change within well-defined limits. Europeans and Americans worry that a deep recession could stoke political extremism – not without reason, perhaps, given the hysterical tone of politics in the US and the increase in the vote for far-right and far-left parties in Europe. But during almost 20 years of tough times, the Japanese have never flirted with political extremism.

That could be because they have coped much better with economic difficulty than foreigners sometimes acknowledge. The Economist, for example, has occasionally lamented Japan's “amazing ability to disappoint”. It is true that foreign investors will have found the country's stock market a particularly disappointing venue in the past two decades; the Nikkei currently stands at a little over 10,500, compared with 39,000 at the peak of the bubble. The Japanese have also been chastised by outsiders for their reluctance to deal more ruthlessly with “zombie” companies, and for clinging to outmoded traditions such as “lifetime employment”.

But the efforts to cushion the worst social effects of an economic downturn have paid off. Last week there were shocked headlines proclaiming that the global recession had driven Japanese unemployment to a new high – 5.7 per cent. That still compares pretty favourably to 9.4 per cent in the US and the euro area. There is probably a lot of disguised unemployment behind the official number – but the same is true in the west.

The Japanese determination to preserve jobs made their labour market less “flexible” and the economy paid a price – but not an unbearable one. The days when academics wrote breathless predictions about “Japan as number one” are long gone. But after 20 years of alleged stagnation, it is still number two – the world's second largest economy. Its biggest companies still make world-beating products. Toyota, for example, has led the world in developing hybrid cars, such as the Prius.

东京给人的感觉,的确不像一个陷入终极衰退国家的首都。东京的米其林星级餐厅比巴黎还要多。英国《金融时报》的时尚宗师泰勒•布律莱(Tyler Brûlé) 徜 徉在东京街头,不知疲倦地搜寻前沿设计的范本——这是在向日本的时尚声誉致敬。日本2002年主办世界杯时,“失落的十年”刚刚过去,日本向世界呈现出一 副欢乐而好客的面孔,相比于其联合主办国韩国怪异的民族主义,显得格外讨喜。日本人的足球踢得也不错。日本国家队赴北京参加了2004年亚洲杯的决赛,击 败了东道主中国队——而且还活着离开了中国。

当然,日本有其自身的问题。其人口平均年龄正稳步上升,而人口总数逐渐减少。每5个日本人中,就有一个年龄超过65岁。民主党已承诺将提高养老金和 父母的育儿补贴,并采取减税措施。但很难想象日本政府如何实现收支平衡。当英美两国担心其公共债务可能达到国内生产总值(GDP)的80%时,日本的债务 却正逐渐接近GDP的200%。

日本应对社会老龄化的一些努力也让人不安。在研发给老年人做伴的机器人方面,该国一直处于世界领先水平。其中包括一款“温暖体贴的Ifbot”,据媒体报道,这种机器人“身着宇航服,会谈论天气、唱歌和做游戏。”

最好不要嘲笑他们。美国和欧洲正疲于应对泡沫经济、公共债务不断上升和婴儿潮(baby-boom)一代退休带来的后果,他们应该怀着尊敬的心情向日本取经。日本的现在,可能就是他们的未来。

译者/何黎

Tokyo certainly does not feel like the capital of a country in the grip of terminal depression. The city's restaurants have accumulated more Michelin stars than are to be found in Paris. Tyler Brûlé, the Financial Times style guru, prowls the streets of the city, searching relentlessly for examples of cutting-edge design – a tribute to the country's reputation for style. When Japan hosted the football World Cup in 2002, just after its “lost decade”, it presented a cheerful and welcoming face to the world that contrasted pleasantly with the spooky nationalism of its South Korean co-hosts. The Japanese can even play football. The national team went to Beijing for the final of the 2004 Asian cup, beat China – and got out of the country alive.

Of course, Japan has its problems. Its average age is rising steadily and its population is shrinking. One in five Japanese is over 65. The Democrats have promised to raise pensions and payments to parents – and to cut taxes. It is hard to see how the sums add up. While the US and the UK worry that their public-sector debts could hit 80 per cent of gross domestic product, Japan's debt is heading for 200 per cent.

Some of its efforts to deal with an ageing society are positively unnerving. The country has led the world in developing robots as companions for the elderly. These include a “snuggling Ifbot” that, according to press reports, “lives in an astronaut suit, chats about the weather, sings and plays games”.

It is best not to laugh. As the US and Europe struggle to come to terms with the aftermath of a bubble economy, rising public debt and the retirement of the baby-boom generation, they should look to Japan with respect. It may be the future.