Incoming Leader’s Plan: Not Repeating His Errors

安倍晉三重上任力求不重複錯誤

HIROKO TABUCHI 報道 2012年12月19日

Yoshikazu Tsuno/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

周一，將成為日本首相的安倍晉三表示，日本在東海島嶼上的利益不容商量，中國也主張對這些島嶼擁有主權，但是他的立場並不比現任政府更為強硬。

東京——周日，安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的政黨在日本大選中取得壓倒性勝利，他準備再次擔任日本首相。安倍晉三說他知道跌入谷底是什麼感覺，這是真話。他上次執政期間有不少污點，包括政 治資金醜聞、似乎不着邊際的民族主義議程，以及他以腸道病為由辭職的謠言。謠言後來被證實，那種頗不光彩的退出方式，引發了關於他身體狀況的嘲諷笑話。

安倍晉三的即將復出，與其說是反映了他的東山再起，倒不如說是反映了他之後的領導人的驚人失敗。但是，安倍晉三在很多方面是一個脫了胎換了骨的人。 儘管分析人士稱，安倍晉三骨子裡仍深深信奉民族主義，但是他從失敗中得到了教訓，他會少說花里胡哨的話，而致力於復興日本的垂死經濟。

在加劇兩國領土爭端中極盡全力的中國，仍有可能促使安倍晉三展現其民族主義色彩。周一，安倍晉三稱，有關日本對一系列中日爭議島嶼的主權問題，沒有可以談判的餘地。但是，安倍晉三此舉並沒比現在執政的民主黨走得更遠，民主黨也一直在強調日本對這些島嶼的主權。
相反，到目前為止，安倍晉三把最強硬的言辭都保留給談論經濟問題上。他承諾加大公共支出，對通貨緊縮採取更敢做敢為的立場，用更大膽的措施使日元貶 值，因為強硬的日元已經阻礙了日本的出口導向型經濟。他的選舉演講中到處摻插着要重塑一個強大國家的承諾，但是，他所說的強大，是指對自然災害和經濟衰退 有快速恢復能力，而非針對朝鮮的火箭或中國的海軍。

安倍晉三以經濟為重點的競選綱領，幫助他帶領自民黨獲得選舉勝利，同時迴避了核能等棘手議題。自民黨曾在幾乎沒有中斷的半個世紀執政期間倡導使用核 能，直到2009年被民主黨趕下台，不到兩年後，就發生了2011年3月的地震和海嘯事件，造成超過2萬人死亡，並引發了福島核危機。

安倍晉三的經濟主張提振了市場，周一，在自民黨獲得決定性勝利後，股市上揚。周一，美元兌日元的匯率上升至1美元兌84.48日元，創2011年4 月以來的新高。在周日選舉之前的一個月內，受安倍經濟政策的鼓舞，日經指數(Nikkei stock average)飆升10%，周一，該指數再度上漲0.94%，至9828.88點。

周一，安倍晉三在一個新聞發佈會上表示：“我曾落到谷底，並遭到暴風雨般的批評。現在，我想要證明重新開始是可能的。”

2006年至2007年，安倍晉三第一次出任日本首相，那個任期有一個高調的開端。日本新聞媒體樂於指出他是首位第二次世界大戰後出生的首相，並且是很受歡迎的前首相小泉純一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)欽點的繼任者。

然而，安倍晉三卻在政治上失策，他一心將重點放在加強學校的愛國主義宣傳和提升自衛隊的地位上，這似乎與民意脫節，因為日本民眾更關心國民養老金制 度和其他民生問題。安倍晉三很快成為大眾媒體嘲諷的對象，成為當時頗為流行的一個說法的代名詞：“K.Y.”,它字面上的意思就是“不會讀空氣”，意即 “搞不清楚狀況”。

多次失言和一系列與金錢和退休金相關的醜聞，削弱了安倍內閣，導致四位內閣大臣辭職，另一位大臣自殺。在國外，由於安倍晉三無視歷史文件和相關證 言，否認戰爭時期日本軍隊曾強迫婦女成為性奴，他也招致批評。該爭議事件還促使美國議員通過一項法案，呼籲日本道歉。執政10個月後，安倍晉三所在的執政 黨在日本參議院選舉中遭受了恥辱的失敗；兩個月後，安倍晉三辭職。

鑒於明年夏天預計將舉行參議院選舉，分析人士稱，安倍晉三決心不再重蹈覆轍。他們說，他會特別小心，因為他的權力並不像自民黨在眾議院的超級多數席 位所暗示的那麼穩固。自民黨僅在日本40%的選區獲勝，但得益於反對黨派的分裂。如果反對黨派重新集結，或者自民黨在什麼地方失手，局勢將很快變得對自民 黨不利。

“開始時，他會保持溫和基調，”慶應義塾大學(Keio University)政治學教授小林良彰(Yoshiaki Kobayashi)說。“他會通過與美國保持密切關係來避免產生麻煩。他知道為了參議院選舉，他必須首先注重經濟問題。”

經濟學家表示，考慮到多年來解決通縮問題的措施都不夠到位，安倍對於在抗擊通縮方面大舉加大力度的承諾具有格外重大的意義。他已經對日本央行 (Bank of Japan)施壓，敦促其增加印鈔，並將通脹目標提高一倍，至2%，他還威脅稱，要修改法律，在制定央行的政策目標方面賦予政府更大權力。

他已經明確表示，日本央行行長白川方明(Masaaki Shirakawa)在三個月後任期結束時將不會續任。白川方明因在通脹問題上保持謹慎姿態而聞名。

安倍晉三還表示，他將通過增加公共工程支出來重振經濟，這個承諾為自民黨在經濟低迷的農村地區贏得支持。安倍周一表示，重新起草明年的預算將是一項高度優先的工作，以使預算總規模達到10萬億日元（約合1190億美元），從而分配更多資金投入重建和防災項目。
但這些擴張性的政策讓一些經濟學家感到震驚。日本公共債務已經飆升至國內生產總值的兩倍多，使該國成為工業化世界中公共債務最高的國家。重啟大規模公共支出的政策，將使近年控制公共債務的努力化為烏有，而過高的通脹可能推高舉債成本，導致投資者對日本的公共財政失去信心。

對於其他人來說，注重公共工程意味着回歸到20世紀90年代的“豬肉桶政治”（pork-barrel politics，也稱政治分肥——譯註），當時自民黨為了獲得選票，承諾啟動大量工程，背上了巨額公共債務。在最近的競選期間，全國各地的自民黨議員通 過承諾增加公共工程支出，來迎合農業和建築業遊說團體。

新的分肥關係可能危及安倍所稱的重振經濟的必要措施：例如自由貿易協定，此類協定將為日本出口商拓寬海外市場的大門，同時讓國內行業對外資開放，引入更多競爭。

分析人士預計，安倍不會在自由貿易協定方面做出全方位的努力，以免得罪農業和建築業團體，他們代表着那些高度孤立的行業，反對任何自由貿易協定。

“基礎設施項目就像毒品，”東京法政大學(Hosei University)政治學者、曾經擔任公共工程政府顧問的五十嵐敬喜(Takayoshi Igarashi)說。“你一旦開始了，就很難停止。但所有這些支出會帶來越來越多的債務。”

“當你承諾給每個人恩惠時，你就沒有餘地做別的事情了。”

翻譯：梁英、谷菁璐、許欣

Incoming Leader’s Plan: Not Repeating His Errors

By HIROKO TABUCHI December 19, 2012

 

TOKYO — Shinzo Abe, set to return as Japan’s prime minister after his party’s landslide victory on Sunday, means it when he says he knows what it feels like to hit rock bottom. His last term in office was marred by political financing scandals, a nationalist agenda that seemed off the mark and rumors — later confirmed — that he resigned over an intestinal ailment, an ignominious exit that prompted snide jokes about his condition.
Mr. Abe’s impending comeback says more about the spectacular failure of the leaders who succeeded him than about a revival on his part. But Mr. Abe, 58, is in many ways a changed man. Though analysts say he remains deeply nationalistic at heart, he has toned down his hawkish language and instead has focused on reviving Japan’s moribund economy.

It is still possible that China, with which the country is enmeshed in a territorial quarrel, could prompt Mr. Abe to show his nationalist colors. He said Monday that there would be no negotiation over Japan’s claims to the set of islands in dispute, but he went no further than the incumbent Democrats, who have also asserted Japanese sovereignty over the islands.
So far, Mr. Abe has reserved his tough talk for the economy, promising public spending largess, a far more aggressive stand against deflation and bolder measures to weaken the strong yen, which has stifled Japan’s export-led economy. He peppered his campaign speeches with promises to rebuild a strong country, emphasizing resilience against natural disasters and economic downturns, rather than dwelling on North Korean rockets or the Chinese Navy.
The economic focus helped Mr. Abe lead his party, the Liberal Democrats, to victory while sidestepping difficult issues like nuclear power. The Liberal Democrats promoted nuclear power during their half-century of almost uninterrupted leadership until the Democrats ousted them from power in 2009, less than two years before the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people and set off the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Markets have cheered on Mr. Abe’s economic turn, and rallied on Monday after his party’s decisive victory. The United States dollar reached as high as 84.48 yen on Monday, its highest level against the Japanese currency since April 2011. The Nikkei stock average, which surged 10 percent in the monthlong prelude to Sunday’s elections in anticipation of Mr. Abe’s economic policies, gained an additional 0.94 percent on Monday, rising to 9,828.88.
At a news conference on Monday, Mr. Abe said: “I once fell to rock bottom and was hit with a storm of criticism. Now, I want to prove it’s possible to start over again.”
Mr. Abe’s first stint as prime minister, in 2006-07, began on a high note. The Japanese news media hailed him as the first prime minister born after World War II and the handpicked successor to a popular leader, Junichiro Koizumi.
But Mr. Abe made the mistake of focusing on a drive to instill patriotism in schools and elevate the military’s status, an approach that appeared to be out of touch with a population more concerned about the state of the national pension system and other bread-and-butter issues. Mr. Abe quickly became an object of ridicule in the popular media, an embodiment of an expression popular at the time: “K.Y.,” for “kuuki yomenai,” which literally means “can’t read the air,” or “clueless.”
Mr. Abe’s cabinet was weakened by gaffes and a series of money and pension-related scandals that led four of his ministers to resign and a fifth to commit suicide. Overseas, he was criticized for denying that Japan’s wartime army had forced women into sexual slavery, despite historical documents and testimony. The controversy prompted United States lawmakers to pass a bill calling for an apology. And 10 months into his term, Mr. Abe’s governing party suffered a humiliating defeat in elections for Parliament’s upper house; two months later, he was gone.
With upper house elections expected this summer, Mr. Abe is determined not to make the same mistakes, analysts say. He will be especially cautious, they say, because his mandate is not as rock solid as the Liberal Democrats’ supermajority in the lower house might suggest. The party won just 40 percent of the vote in the country’s electoral districts, but benefited from a splintering of the opposition. If the opposition regroups or the Liberal Democrats stumble, the tables could quickly turn against them.
“In the beginning, he will keep a moderate tone,” said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, a professor of political science at Keio University in Tokyo. “He will avoid making waves by staying close to the United States. He knows he must focus on the economy first, for the upper house elections.”
Mr. Abe’s promise to go much further to tackle deflation is particularly significant, economists say, given years of halfway measures. He has already pressured the Bank of Japan to print more money, urging that the inflation target double to 2 percent, and threatening to change laws to give the government more power in setting the bank’s policy goals.
He has made clear that the bank’s governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, known for his cautious stance on inflation, will be shown the door when his term ends in three months.
Mr. Abe has also said he will kick-start growth with spending on public works, a promise that has rallied support for the Liberal Democrats across Japan’s depressed countryside. Mr. Abe said Monday that a high priority would be redrafting next year’s budget so that it amounts to a total of 10 trillion yen, or $119 billion, to allocate more on reconstruction and disaster prevention.
But these expansionary policies scare some economists. The country’s public debt has mushroomed to more than twice the size of its gross domestic product, making it the largest public debt in the industrialized world. A return to large public spending would undo recent efforts to rein in that debt, while too much inflation could drive up borrowing costs and cause investors to lose confidence in Japan’s finances.
For others, the focus on public works represents a return to the pork-barrel politics of the 1990s, when the Liberal Democrats promised extensive projects in return for votes, and racked up huge public debt. In their recent campaigns, Liberal Democratic lawmakers across the country courted farming and construction industry lobbies with promises of public works spending.
New pork-barrel ties could threaten steps Mr. Abe says are needed to revitalize the economy: for example, free trade agreements to improve Japanese exporters’ access to overseas markets and open up industries at home to more competition.
Analysts do not expect Mr. Abe to make any concerted push that would alienate farming and construction groups, which represent heavily insular industries opposed to any free trade pacts.
“Infrastructure projects are like a drug,” said Takayoshi Igarashi, a political scientist at Hosei University in Tokyo and a former government adviser on public works. “Once you start, it’s difficult to stop. But all the spending leads to more and more debt.
“And when you promise everyone favors, you are left with little scope to do anything else.”